River Flood Warning 55, NWS Memphis, TN

818 
WGUS84 KMEG 210125
FLSMEG
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
725 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for the Buttahatchie River...Tombigbee 
River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A followup Flood Statement will be issued Thursday morning or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

For graphical river and flood information...please go to 
www.weather.gov and click near Memphis on the map. Then select Rivers
and Lakes AHPS under current conditions.

Do not drive through flooded areas...turn around don't drown.

Stay tuned to your weather radio and your local news media for the 
latest river information.

&&

MSC095-211230-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-171221T1230Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.171220T2005Z.171220T2245Z.171221T0630Z.NO/
725 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River at Bigbee
* until Thursday December 21.
* At 06 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring AND Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 10.3 feet Saturday December 23.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* At 14.0 feet...Flooding of low lying agricltural land is occurring.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8852 3409 8840 3399 8852 3406 8857


$$

MSC095-210808-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-171221T0808Z/
/AMYM6.1.ER.171220T1654Z.171220T2215Z.171221T0208Z.NO/
725 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River near Amory
* until Wednesday December 20.
* At 07 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.5 feet.
* Maximum forecast stage of 13.8 feet Saturday December 23.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* At 20.0 feet...Lowland flooding begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8857 3399 8852 3393 8854 3394 8856
      3402 8858                       

$$

MSC087-095-220124-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0057.171221T1312Z-171226T0224Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.171221T1312Z.171224T0000Z.171225T2024Z.NO/
725 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Buttahatchie River near Aberdeen
* from Thursday December 21 until Monday December 25.
* At 06 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 13.5 feet Thursday December 21.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday December 21 and 
  continue to rise to near 15.2 feet by Saturday December 23.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Monday December 25.
* At 15.0 feet...Water is covering a portion of airbase road located 
  on the west bank of the river. Low lying farm land is flooded

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8829 3409 8821 3373 8826 3365 8843
      3370 8844 3375 8839             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 912 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017/

UPDATE...

Vort max evident in radar mosaic approaching the MS River. Precip
will gradually end W to E this afternoon, well covered in current
forecast. 15Z temps generally within a degree of forecast so no
adjustments needed there. Early 12Z guidance suggests fog again
overnight so will add patchy fog for tonight. Early guidance also
looks a little slower with late-week system...will evaluate full
12Z guidance before making any adjustments in these periods. GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017/

Moderate to heavy rainfall is coming to an end this morning as an
area of low pressure located over north Mississippi gradually
shifts eastward. An associated mid-level shortwave trough is
located over Arkansas and will become centered over the Midsouth
by midday today. This will lead to widespread cloud cover today
with scattered to numerous rain showers expected, primarily across
northeast Arkansas and western Tennessee where the greatest
instability will exist. Expect these showers to decrease in
coverage and end from west to east as we head into the afternoon.

It will be a bit cooler across the area tonight with lows mainly
in the low to mid 40s. The air behind this system looks fairly
stagnant tonight which should lead to another cloudy night, but
southerly flow will begin to pick up during the day on Thursday
which should help to break up most cloud cover by the afternoon.
High temperatures will be well above average, potentially reaching
70 degrees across portions of north Mississippi.

By Thursday night the stage will begin to be set for the next
storm system and frontal passage through the Midsouth. In the
upper levels models indicate that a cutoff low over the western
CONUS will phase with a longwave trough dropping out of Canada,
leading to an impressive jet streak with the favorable right
entrance region located over the Midsouth. A surface frontal
boundary will develop across the area in response, with low
pressure tracking across the area Friday into Friday night. As a
result expecting another round of heavy rainfall with totals
easily reaching several inches in spots. Will need to continue to
monitor the potential for flash flooding, especially in flood
prone areas as soil moisture will be higher this time around with
all of the rainfall we received over the past 24 hours. Only
marginal amounts of instability should preclude the need to
mention strong or severe thunderstorms, but lightning will be
possible with heavier downpours.

By Saturday the frontal boundary will slowly progress southeast
out of the forecast area, leaving us on the cool side of the
boundary with rain showers lingering through much of the day. Rain
will finally come to an end by Saturday night as overnight lows
fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Cooler weather continues for Christmas Eve with high temperatures
reaching the lower 40s for most of the Midsouth. Continuing to
mention a slight chance of precipitation Sunday, which could be in
the form of light rain or snow showers depending on low level
temperatures. Ensemble guidance still is not impressive regarding
coverage and accumulation of any precipitation... with minimal
amounts of lift it could very well end up being too dry for
anything other than isolated drizzle or flurries. Overnight lows
will appropriately fall into the mid 20s for the arrival of Santa.

Christmas day will see continued cool conditions with high temps
reaching the low 40s again, but likely with sunny skies as surface
high pressure settles in.

Beyond Christmas model guidance begins to diverge, but continued
below average temperatures are likely with the next chance of
precipitation developing by late in the work week.

WLC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over the region for much of the forecast
period. Periods of rain will continue for much of the afternoon
with areas of fog developing tonight and into the overnight hours.
Winds will be mainly from the northeast at around 10 knots this
afternoon becoming light and variable tonight. Winds will shift to
the south by Thursday morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
452 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-211300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
452 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flash flooding on Friday
and Friday night across portions of the Midsouth. Several inches
of rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.