Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

403 
WWUS84 KMEG 111730
RFWMEG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Across Northeast 
Arkansas this Afternoon...

.The combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity values, 
and low fuel moisture levels will create Red Flag conditions this 
afternoon. Expect improving conditions by this evening as winds 
decrease and humidity values increase.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-120000-
/O.CON.KMEG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171212T0000Z/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Arkansas - Randolph, Clay, Lawrence, Greene,
  and Craighead counties.
 
* WIND...20 foot winds greater than 14 mph with gusts to 25 
  mph.|

* HUMIDITY...Around 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

JLH

313 
WWUS84 KMEG 112359 AAA
RFWMEG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
559 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Red Flag Warning for Portions of Northeast Arkansas Allowed to
Expire...

.Although relative humidity levels will prevail below Red Flag 
criteria this evening, wildland fire danger will remain at 
elevated levels due to occasionally gusty winds and dry fuels. 

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-120100-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171212T0000Z/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-
559 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE...

Although relative humidity levels will prevail below Red Flag 
criteria this evening, wildland fire danger will remain at 
elevated levels. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

$$

PWB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
328 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Surface low pressure is moving into the upper
Mississippi valley while high pressure sits over the Gulf of
Mexico. Skies are clear and temps range from the upper 20s in the
colder spots near the TN River to mid and upper 30s across the
Delta where a little wind has kept things mixed up a bit.

Today...Surface low pressure will dive SE toward the southern
Great Lakes which will tighten the pressure gradient across the
Mid-South resulting in gusty SW winds. Ahead of the cold front
associated with this low pressure system expect warm air to bulge
into the Mid-South as 850 mb temps climb above 10C. This will
translate into highs in the 60s. Meanwhile very dry low and mid
tropospheric air is situated just W/NW of the Mid-South where PW
values are around 0.25 inches. Expect this dry air to push into
Northeast Arkansas this afternoon dropping RH values below 25
percent. This coupled with very dry fuels and gusty winds will
produce Red Flag conditions across Northeast Arkansas. Elsewhere
across the Mid-South an elevated fire danger will prevail this
afternoon.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The cold front pushes through
during the evening. Brisk NW winds will keep the air mixed up so
lows will remain in the 30s though windchills will be in the 20s
by morning. Tuesday will be chilly with brisk NW wind and highs
in the 40s. Tuesday night will be the coldest of the week with
lows mainly in the 20s.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure axis shifts south on
Wednesday and winds turn southwesterly and temps warm into the 50
to 55 degree range. Another dry cold front moves through early
Thursday keeping temps in check. Friday looks like another chilly
day with highs mostly in the 40s.

Weekend...The eastern U.S. upper trough finally moves offshore
with a more zonal progressive pattern setting up across the U.S.
This will result in warmer temps and possible precipitation
though medium range models are in disagreement in that regard.
Saturday looks dry and mild. The 00z operational GFS taps some
moisture associated with the subtropical jet as a mid level trough
moves through Sunday though several GEFS members and the 00Z
operational ECMWF run are dry. Went with slight chance/chance pops
for now though confidence is low.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VFR to prevail through the period. 05Z GOES-13 water vapor imagery
showed a compact upper level disturbance dropping south/southeast
across the US-North Dakota/Canadian border. This feature and
associated surface cold front will drop into the Midsouth shortly
after sunset Monday evening, preceded by gusty southwest surface
winds Monday afternoon.

For late Monday evening MEM ops, it appears the surface cold front
will pass through just prior to the late evening arrival push.

Latest NAM guidance suggests elevated MVFR post-frontal deck may
edge into MEM around the outbound push early Tuesday morning,
along with an increased potential of northwesterly surface wind
gusts.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Clay-Craighead-Greene-Lawrence-Randolph.

MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-112315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
314 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

An elevated wildfire danger will develop on Monday afternoon and
evening across areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Use
extreme caution if burning outdoors and remember to follow the
advice of local fire weather officials regarding local burn bans.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JLH