Frost Advisory 6, NWS Memphis, TN

Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/

Temperatures have risen into the 50s across the Midsouth this
afternoon with winds in the process of backing towards the south.
As a result not too concerned about frost overnight, but if winds
decouple the potential is there for eastern sections of the
region and therefore left patchy frost in the forecast. Farther
west and in the metro areas expect temperatures to bottom out
closer to 40 degrees tonight.

Tomorrow a dry cold front will progress through the area, but too
little too late to have much of an impact on high temperatures
for the day. Highs are expected to range from the lower 60s in
the far north to the lower 70s in the far south. The cold front
will keep tomorrow night chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Increasing cloud coverage will help to keep
temperatures from getting too low.

Tuesday will be cooler than Monday due to the dry continental
airmass hanging on at the surface. Meanwhile aloft skies become
mostly cloudy by the afternoon due to increasing isentropic lift,
further helping to keep temps in the 50s. May even see some rain
showers develop in the evening hours, mainly across northeast
Arkansas. Elsewhere rain showers should hold off until after
midnight. By Wednesday rain becomes likely across the majority of
the Midsouth as a warm front lifts to our north. This will put an
end to the cooler temperatures for the foreseeable future as a
broad upper level ridge gradually intensifies and shunts the polar
jet to the US/Canadian border.

Rain chances will taper off Wednesday night into Thursday morning
as overnight lows struggle to drop below 60 degrees as the
maritime tropical airmass is now fully in place. Dew points will
remain in the low to mid 60s through the weekend keeping
temperatures quite mild for this time of year. While Thursday will
be drier with the atmosphere capped, rain chances increase again
Thursday night into Friday as another upper level shortwave
approaches the region. Kept PoPs at 50 percent across the Midsouth
as the timing and strength of this feature is still in question
at this range. Drier and continued warm conditions should follow
for the remainder of the weekend.

WLC

&&

.AVIATION.../00z TAFs/

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Light winds tonight
will increase back to around 7/8 kts from the west on Monday
morning. A cold front will pass through KJBR, KMKL, and KMEM by
Monday afternoon with winds becoming northwesterly through the end
of the forecast period.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-302215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near freezing temperatures will be possible tonight across low
lying areas in the Tennessee River Valley, resulting in patchy
frost.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.