Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Memphis, TN

897 
WGUS64 KMEG 110831
FFAMEG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...A period of heavy rain to occur over northeast Arkansas...

.A low pressure system will produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Arkansas from late this afternoon 
through Friday morning. This may result in additional flooding 
across the area which has had significant river flooding over the
past few days.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-112130-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0004.170511T2100Z-170512T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning, 
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, and Jonesboro
331 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of East Arkansas, including the following areas, 
  Clay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, and Randolph. 

* From this afternoon through Friday afternoon

* Rainfall totals up to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts 
  will aggravate ongoing flooding across the watch area. 

* Additional rainfall will likely result in water spilling out 
  of the Black River and nearby tributaries in areas where 
  levees have been compromised. This should result in additional 
  flooding and road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

480 
WGUS64 KMEG 112012
FFAMEG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.A low pressure system will produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Arkansas tonight into  Friday 
morning. This may result in additional flooding across the area 
which has had significant river flooding over the past several 
days.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-121200-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0004.170511T2100Z-170512T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning, 
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, and Jonesboro
312 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of East Arkansas, including the following areas, 
  Clay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, and Randolph. 

* Through Friday afternoon

* Rainfall totals up to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts 
  will aggravate ongoing flooding across the watch area. 

* Additional rainfall will likely result in water spilling out 
  of the Black River and nearby tributaries in areas where 
  levees have been compromised. This should result in additional 
  flooding and road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

724 
WGUS64 KMEG 120031
FFAMEG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Memphis TN
731 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding expected across the northern
half of the Mid South tonight through Friday morning...

.A low pressure system will produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the northern half of the Mid South. This may
result in additional flooding, especially in areas where significant
river flooding occurred over the past several days.

ARZ027-028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>022-048-051-121100-
/O.EXA.KMEG.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-170512T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Poinsett-Mississippi-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-
Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Crockett-
Including the cities of Harrisburg, Blytheville, Kennett, 
Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, 
Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, 
and Alamo
731 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of East Arkansas, 
  Southeast Missouri, and West Tennessee, including the 
  following areas, in East Arkansas, Mississippi and Poinsett. 
  In Southeast Missouri, Dunklin and Pemiscot. In West 
  Tennessee, Benton, Carroll, Crockett, Dyer, Gibson, Henry, 
  Lake, Lauderdale, Obion, and Weakley. 

* Through early Friday afternoon.

* Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches, with isolated higher
  amounts, will be possible with slow moving and training
  thunderstorms. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-121100-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-170512T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning, 
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, and Jonesboro
731 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of East Arkansas, including the following areas, 
  Clay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, and Randolph. 

* Through Friday afternoon

* Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches, with isolated higher
  amounts, will be possible with slow moving and training
  thunderstorms. 

* Additional rainfall will likely result in water spilling out 
  of the Black River and nearby tributaries in areas where 
  levees have been compromised. This should result in additional 
  flooding and road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JLH

546 
WGUS64 KMEG 120840
FFAMEG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...Flash Flood Watch remains in effect across the northern half 
of the Mid South through this morning...

.A low pressure system will produce numerous showers and 
thunderstorms across the northern half of the Mid South. This may 
result in additional flooding, especially in areas where 
significant river flooding occurred over the past several days.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>022-048-051-
121645-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-170512T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-
Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-
Benton TN-Lauderdale-Crockett-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning, 
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, 
Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, 
Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, 
Ripley TN, and Alamo
340 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of East Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and West 
  Tennessee, including the following areas, in East Arkansas, 
  Clay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett, and 
  Randolph. In Southeast Missouri, Dunklin and Pemiscot. In West 
  Tennessee, Benton, Carroll, Crockett, Dyer, Gibson, Henry, 
  Lake, Lauderdale, Obion, and Weakley. 

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Up to an additional inch of rain is possible across the watch
  area with isolated higher amounts. One to two inches of rain
  with locally higher amounts fell overnight. 

* Additional rainfall will likely result in water spilling out 
  of the Black River and nearby tributaries in areas where 
  levees have been compromised. This should result in additional 
  flooding and road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

SJM

685 
WGUS64 KMEG 121235
FFAMEG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Memphis TN
735 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>022-048-051-
121345-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-170512T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph-Clay-Lawrence-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-
Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-
Benton TN-Lauderdale-Crockett-
Including the cities of Pocahontas, Piggott, Corning, 
Walnut Ridge, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, 
Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, 
Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, 
Ripley TN, and Alamo
735 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of East Arkansas, Southeast
Missouri, and West Tennessee has been cancelled. Heavy rain threat
has diminished across the area. 

$$

SJM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
723 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...

One more warm day is on tap tomorrow...but likely a few degrees
cooler than today due to increasing cloud cover. Most of the area
will see more clouds than sun by midday. An amplified ridge and
surface high over the Midsouth responsible for the recent warm
and dry conditions will shift East over the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile out West a trough will dig over the Eastern Rockies and
Southern Plains resulting in strong Southwest flow over the
MidSouth region.

A closed low over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles early
tomorrow will begin to shift slowly to the East...becoming an open
wave by the time it reaches Eastern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.
A surface cold front ahead of the upper level feature will
approach the Mississippi River by midnight tomorrow night. The
upper level trough/wave will remain strongly positively
tilted...likely keeping the threat of severe thunderstorms
suppressed. Thermodynamic support will be minimized as well due to
timing and dew points only in the lower 60s. Nevertheless we
still expect up to 500 CAPE and LI's as low as -4C and the SPC
included much of West TN and Northwest MS in a Marginal Risk for
severe storms and most of East Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel
in a slight risk. The main threat will be damaging wind with a
secondary threat of large hail. The threat of severe storms will
likely slowly diminish after midnight. Flooding could also become
a problem WPC has over 2 inches of rain in the forecast through
Friday afternoon in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel...tapering off to around one half of an inch in
Northeast Mississippi. Localized flooding is possible mainly in
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Showers and weak
thunderstorms will remain likely Friday behind the cold front but
strong or severe thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures
Friday should be about 10 degrees cooler than tomorrow...mainly in
the low to middle 70s.

The weekend looks fantastic featuring clear skies and highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Expect gradual warming next week with
afternoon highs returning into the middle 80s. Rain should return
midweek.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A few
light showers are possible overnight, but confidence is too low to
put in the TAF at this time. Expect thunderstorms to develop near
JBR tomorrow afternoon with more widespread coverage after
sundown as a front moves into the area. Added VCTS at MEM and MKL
as scattered storms are possible in the late afternoon hours with
daytime heating.

South winds will remain at or slightly above FedEx threshold
overnight. Winds will increase at all TAF sites after 11/15Z with
occasional gusts to 18 kts from the southwest.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-112230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
321 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of
the Mid-South Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday night.