Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Memphis, TN

761 
WGUS74 KMEG 141544
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1044 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2017

MSC135-141554-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-170814T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tallahatchie MS-
1044 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3372 9031 3375 9030 3377 9024 3377 9019
      3378 9017 3381 9018 3381 9045 3392 9045
      3401 8993 3383 8993 3382 8998 3381 8998
      3381 9013 3372 9014 3372 9022 3374 9025
      3370 9026 3369 9028

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
615 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

Rain in the forecast again today, accompanied by a little more
instability south of I-40. Early morning GOES IR imagery showed a
slowly weakening MCS over north TX. Downstream of this system,
scattered storms developed along an elevated warm front across
southern AR, and in a less organized fashion, into northwest MS.
NAM 925mb theta-e depicted strong theta-e convergence in this
region at 09Z.

Areas south of I-140 will remain the focus for locally heavier
rainfall through the afternoon, ahead of an MCV borne from this
morning's MCS over north TX. North of I-40, rain chances will
gradually decrease during the afternoon, behind a low amplitude
leading shortwave.

Broad low amplitude ridging build into the lower MS River valley
on Tuesday and Wednesday, sufficient to reduce thunderstorm
coverage, though not cap thunderstorm development altogether.
00Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian model runs do not amplify this ridge
as much as in earlier runs, and were are about a day earlier with
the passage of a northern branch trof the the mid and upper MS
River valley late Thursday. The main implication for the Midsouth
is heat indices on Friday should be less inclined to approach
heat advisory criteria (105F). Wednesday and Thursday still appear
to bring heat indices near 105, mainly due to the mid/upper 70s
dewpoints. Northeast AR through northwest TN may see a bit of heat
and humidity relief Thursday afternoon, if the faster GFS
verifies with a weak cold frontal passage. In any case, scattered
storms appear appear a good bet north of I-40 Thursday afternoon.

The 00Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models diverge a bit with respect
to how quickly to lift out a Great Lakes upper low this weekend.
But the three models do eventually settle on building an upper
ridge from TX into the Midsouth early next week. Such a pattern
would lead to fewer clouds around solar eclipse time on Monday,
with dry and hot conditions prevailing toward the middle of next
week.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move through the Mid-South over the next 24 hours. CIGS have been
reduced at KJBR already. Expect KMEM and KMKL to also experience
IFR-MVFR CIGS by 13-14Z. CIGS should return back to VFR by 16-18Z.
Have introduced tempos at KMKL and KTUP based on current radar
trends and the latest HRRR. Winds will generally be light and
variable through the period.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
310 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated strong thunderstorms are possible, mainly south of
Interstate 40. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening.

Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees and may reach 105
degrees over portions of the Midsouth Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB