Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with an upper
low over Missouri. This upper pattern has put the CWA under north to
northwest flow aloft. CAPE values and mid-level lapse rates will be
decent today with possible disturbances moving over the area
providing a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Convective parameters don't look as impressive as the past couple of
days so don't expect much in the way of severe weather except maybe
some strong winds. The hi resolution models are indicating the best
chances of convection today along the western, southern, and eastern
borders of the CWA. Temperatures today are expected to be a little
cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 90s across the
Permian Basin.

The upper ridge builds more east on Thursday resulting in northeast
flow aloft over the CWA. Models are indicating possible
precipitation along the Lower Trans Pecos to the Davis Mountains and
Big Bend area Thursday afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow will be
similar to today. Similar conditions will be in place for Friday
through the weekend with chances of precipitation decreasing
Saturday and Sunday. The upper ridge becomes more centered over the
central U.S. next week with mostly dry conditions prevailing.
Temperatures in the extended will be near or slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  95  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       70  97  70  97 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         74  95  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  70  95  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  88  68  88 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          67  94  68  94 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  88  62  87 /  20  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         71  95  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           70  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/80

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
119 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
119 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 /1219 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening
mainly over the mountains of southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico
as well as over the eastern Permian Basin. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across the rest of the area. Though no severe thunderstorms
are expected, some storms will be capable of producing brief heavy
rain and wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. The stronger storms are expected
generally east of and southeast of Midland, though gusty east to
southeast winds along with brief blowing dust are expected to push
through the central Permian Basin by late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TXZ070-052130-
Reagan TX-
339 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Stiles, or 16 miles northeast of Big Lake, moving
south at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Lake, Best, Reagan County Airport and Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 10128 3152 10149 3140 10162 3110 10166
      3109 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 239DEG 51KT 3142 10135

12