Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across portions
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas through mid evening
(05/03z). Will place a tempo group for brief strong and variable
winds and MVFR visibilities in tsra at KMAF and KINK based on
latest trends. Later tonight a thunderstorm complex is forecast to
move into the region from New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle and
will impact KHOB, KMAF, KINK with brief strong gusty and variable
winds and tempo MVFR visibilities in tsra in the 05/05z to 05/11z
timeframe.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country with an
upper low over northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri. This pattern
has resulted in northwest flow aloft over the CWA. There is a chance
of storms again across the area this afternoon into tonight due to
good CAPE and lapse rates across the area. Enhanced omega and
remaining outflow boundaries across the area will also aid in
developing convection. Expect storms to develop across the higher
terrain this afternoon and then develop into the Permian Basin later
in the afternoon. The hi resolution models indicate an increase in
convection across the Permian Basin late this afternoon with an MCS
possibly coming into the area late this evening into tonight. Due to
these conditions, have increased pops across the area this afternoon
into tonight. Temperatures today are expected to be similar to
yesterday with highs mostly in the upper 90s to triple digits.

Chances of thunderstorms continue into Wednesday with a good supply
of moisture but models are less clear on where convection will
develop. Development of convection tomorrow may depend on where it
is today. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler on
Wednesday due to cooler 850 mb temperatures. The upper ridge
continues to build over the western and central part of the country
on Thursday and the upper flow becomes northeasterly over the CWA.
Temperatures will mostly be in the mid 90s across the Permian Basin
on Thursday. There remains a chance of storms across the Davis
Mountains and possibly extending to the Lower Trans Pecos and Big
Bend area on Thursday. Not too much change for Friday except
slightly warmer temperatures. The upper pattern remains the same
over the weekend with mostly dry conditions. The upper ridge becomes
more centered over the central conus during the early to mid part of
next week. This will not have much impact on local conditions with
temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 90s and rain mostly
remaining confined to west of the Upper Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  71  95 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       71  98  70  97 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         76  97  74  96 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  72  97  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  10
Hobbs                          69  93  67  94 /  30  10  10  10
Marfa                          61  90  63  88 /  20  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  96  72  95 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         73  96  72  95 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           73  98  72  97 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
129 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 /1229 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with
the best chances across the Permian Basin and southwest towards the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.  Some storms may become strong
enough to produce strong downburst winds, heavy rainfall, localized
flash flooding, frequent lightning, and hail.

Tonight, a cluster of storms called a Mesoscale Convective System
is expected to drop south into southeastern New Mexico and the
Permian Basin.  Some storms may become strong enough for
downburst winds, heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding,
frequent lightning, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Chances of thunderstorms continue into Wednesday.  Some storms may
become strong, capable of producing strong downburst winds, heavy
rainfall, localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and small
hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

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