Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently across the southern Texas Panhandle will move
south to the Pecos River by 01/12z. A few storms may occur along
and near the front overnight and Saturday across southeast New
Mexico and the northern Permian Basin but confidence was not high
enough to mention at any of the terminals at this time. A period
of tempo MVFR ceilings is expected to develop Saturday morning at
KMAF, KINK, KHOB, and KCNM.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will be over, or near, the region through the next 7
days, and will ensure we stay at or above normal temperatures for
this time of year.  A Heat Advisory in effect for much of the
forecast area will continue until 800 pm CDT this evening with
readings mainly in the 100s to around 110 degrees beginning to
cool.  There could be a few storms along a dryline over the Permian
Basin late this afternoon and early evening, due mostly to the
intense heating.  If any storms develop, strong winds, occasional
lightning strikes and brief heavy rainfall will be possible.

Although the upper ridge will flatten to the south of a passing
shortwave trough, we will see a little relief from the 100+ readings
over the weekend, but high temperatures will still be above normal.
A cold front stretching from southeastern New Mexico, eastward to
the Red River could provide a focus for thunderstorm development
this afternoon and tonight, if not along a dryline which extends
from the western Low Rolling Plains southward across the eastern
Permian Basin.  Although any convection which forms may decrease by
late this evening, thunderstorms could develop late tonight along
the frontal boundary as low level southerly flow impinges upon the
boundary.

A surface ridge will backdoor into the region Saturday in the wake
of the mentioned shortwave trough, and shunt the low level thermal
ridge westward.  This will also shove low level moist air westward
and allow for at least low chance pops along a dryline/surface
trough many days during the next seven as the upper ridge relocates
to the Four Corners region Monday.  A Mesoscale Convective System
may even form Saturday night and move eastward into the area via
southeastern New Mexico.  Since shear will be lacking all of the
upcoming days due to the proximity of the upper ridge, the hot
temperatures will promote strong enough updrafts for a downburst
threat any afternoon/evening.  Also, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible.  The upper ridge may remain
centered over the Four Corners, which would keep PoPs in the
forecast, not to mention high temperatures mainly below 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  95  74  98 /  20  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       71  96  71  98 /  20  20  40  20
Dryden                         76  98  75  98 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  75  98  74  99 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  89  69  91 /  10  30  40  20
Hobbs                          69  92  70  95 /  20  20  30  10
Marfa                          63  94  61  92 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75  96  74  97 /  10  10  30  10
Odessa                         74  96  74  98 /  10  10  30  10
Wink                           75  99  74 100 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

70/67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
243 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 /143 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the area this afternoon
through early evening.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tonight, generally over the western Low Rolling Plains southwestward
to the Davis Mountains. The strongest storms will produce gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon
are expected to migrate over the Permian Basin Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing strong winds, hail, frequent lightning strikes, and brief
heavy rainfall.

Isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorms are forecast for the
mountains and adjacent plains through next week. Temperatures will be
a touch cooler, with the highest temperatures forecast for the Pecos
and Rio Grande valleys.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

70

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

TXZ062-010015-
Midland TX-
646 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cotton Flat, or 8 miles southwest of Greenwood, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cotton Flat, Spraberry and Skywest Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 10204 3193 10214 3200 10195 3202 10181
      3185 10177 3184 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 240DEG 49KT 3192 10197

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
708 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

TXZ048-053-010045-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
708 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHERN SCURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
China Grove, or 10 miles southeast of Snyder, moving northeast at 115
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, Colorado City, China Grove, Valley View, Loraine, Colorado
City Airport, Hermleigh, Lake Colorado City, Lake Colorado City State
Park, Inadale, Us-84 Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line, I-
20 Near The Nolan-
Mitchell County Line, Winston Field, Cuthbert, Buford, Dunn and Ira.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 209 and 228.

LAT...LON 3229 10090 3254 10116 3278 10092 3258 10066
      3239 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 223DEG 100KT 3259 10082

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
714 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             10 S SNYDER             32.57N 100.92W
06/30/2017  E0.50 INCH       Scurry             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT INTERSECTION OF FM1808 AND FM2835.

&&

MATT.SALERNO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

TXZ048-053-010130-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SCURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 750 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Valley View, or near Colorado City. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado City, China Grove, Valley View, Loraine, Colorado City
Airport, Inadale, Us-84 Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line, I-
20 Near The Nolan-Mitchell County Line and Buford.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 213 and 228.

LAT...LON 3237 10093 3254 10095 3263 10066 3234 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 211DEG 3KT 3248 10083

24