Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect until midnight...
zones updated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR visibilities in thunderstorms with gusty winds are
expected at KMAF, KINK, KFST through 15/02z. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected at the southeast New Mexico and west Texas
terminals the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will be gusty this
evening at the west Texas terminals before diminishing overnight.
More thunderstorms possible across the west Texas terminals late
Thursday afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another active weather day expected again this afternoon and evening
as intense heat gives way to severe thunderstorms. A developing mid
level ridge over N Mexico will keep nearly westerly flow aloft
across the area today. There are subtle hints that a weak shortwave
is crossing over top of the ridge this afternoon. Meanwhile,
temperatures continue to warm to near 100 currently with a diffuse
dryline setting up across the western Permian Basin south to the
Davis Mountains. Storms have already developed across the higher
terrain with initiation likely along the rest of the dryline within
the next few hours. MLCAPE values are nearing 3000 J/kg already
while deep layer shear is around 40 kts. These factors will allow
for storms to organize and quickly become severe. Lapse rates over
8 C/km will be more than sufficient for large hail (some over
2"). Storms will move off to east and weaken around sunset.

Very similar conditions are expected Thursday with temperatures back
into the upper 90's and 100's and more thunderstorms along the
dryline. The dryline looks to be a bit further west tomorrow so
storms will be possible across SE NM and parts of Culberson Co. With
similar atmospheric parameters to today, severe weather will be
possible again Thursday. The mid level ridge repositions itself over
the Desert SW Friday into the weekend. While heights don't increase
much, mid level temperatures rise into the mid 30's C across the
area Friday and Saturday. With deep mixing expected, highs will
climb above 105 across much of the Permian Basin and near 110 in
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys. A Heat Advisory will
likely be needed for much of the area. The dryline will mix
further east, but how far is still unknown so will keep isolated
storms in for now across the Permian Basin south to the Lower
Trans Pecos. Very hot temperatures continue Saturday before we
cool slightly early next week.

The upper ridge continues to build to our west next week with
increasing heights across the area. This will suppress most if
not all convection with high temperatures staying mostly in the
upper 90's and 100's.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 100  76 107 /  30  30  20  10
Carlsbad                       70 105  69 106 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         76  99  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74 103  76 108 /  20  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  97  72  97 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          71 101  69 104 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          66  97  66 100 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76 107 /  30  30  10  10
Odessa                         75 101  76 107 /  30  30  10  10
Wink                           75 105  74 109 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
206 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 /106 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon and evening, mostly
across the Davis Mountains, Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  Severe
storms are possible, which could produce damaging winds, large hail,
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours each
afternoon Thursday through Saturday across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains, Southeast New Mexico, and the Trans Pecos. Hot
temperatures and consequent low relative humidity will be the main
threats, but lower winds will limit greater concerns.

A few strong storms are possible Thursday, mostly across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin.  Damaging winds, large hail, frequent
lightning, and brief heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Very hot temperatures are expected from Thursday through the
weekend, but especially Friday and Saturday when temperatures will
likely be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.  A Heat Advisory may
be issued for many locations both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested by 400 pm CDT.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
735 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW ODESSA            31.92N 102.39W
06/14/2017  M64 MPH          Ector              TX   ASOS

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
739 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             2 N ODESSA              31.88N 102.37W
06/14/2017  E2.00 INCH       Ector              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
758 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

TXZ075-150145-
Pecos TX-
758 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Belding, or 13 miles west of Fort Stockton, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Belding, Firestone Test Track and Fort Stockton-Pecos
County Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 240 and 275.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3088 10325 3109 10305 3091 10259 3063 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 299DEG 23KT 3094 10311

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
801 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

TXZ081-150145-
Big Bend Area TX-
801 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Marathon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Brewster
County.

LAT...LON 2993 10334 3008 10324 2998 10294 2975 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 301DEG 8KT 2997 10322