Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
604 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Issuance

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
across portions of the Trans Pecos region and Permian Basin, with
most convection dissipating by mid evening. VCTS groups were
included at KMAF, KINK, and KFST, where the best chance of
thunderstorms exists. Any thunderstorms may result in reduced
visibilities along with the possibility of hail and gusty winds.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the next
24 hours. Gusty south winds will decrease to 6 to 12 knots by mid
to late evening.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...
Not many changes to the current forecast as the ridge rules. WV
imagery shows the west coast upper trough has begun its NE
trajectory, and centered over the junction of NV/UT/ID. Further
south, the upper ridge remains centered over Durango, Mexico, and
nosing NE into Texas. Surface obs/analysis shows the dryline
backed up against the western mountains, and this feature should
begin mixing east at any time. Despited warm temperatures aloft,
convergence along the dryline was enough to initiate convection
over the lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend yesterday afternoon. H7
temperatures on today's 12Z KMAF RAOB came in about 1C cooler than
yesterday, so a repeat of isolated activity seems likely this
afternoon/evening, as well as the next couple of days. Forecast
soundings yield CAPEs in excess of 2000 J/kg and steep lapse rates
each afternoon, and deep layer shear increasing Tue/Wed for
organized convection along the dryline. Wet-bulb zero heights are
getting to the upper limit for large hail, but high CCLs will
leave the door open for damaging winds, and we'll mention this in
the HWO.

As the west coast trough ejects up into Canada, the Mexican ridge
will begin building north into the SW CONUS, dominating the
extended forecast. This will keep the thermal ridge axis generally
just west of the CWA, allowing continued triple-digit temps many
locations each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  98  73  99 /  20  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       68 103  67 103 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         74  99  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  67  99 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  94  61  96 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 100  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         73 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           72 103  73 103 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 /233 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Near critical fire weather conditions will persist in the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico into the evening
until wind speeds decrease.

A few strong, if not severe, thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across portions of the lower Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Strong winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall, and
occasional lightning strikes are possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of the lower Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin. Strong winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning strikes are possible with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

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