Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Very challenging flight weather exists for most of the forecast
period. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
affect area terminals through much of tonight, with MVFR
conditions in heavy rain likely, and IFR conditions possible.
Small hail, lightning, and erratic gusty winds could accompany
storms. MVFR and potentially IFR conditions will follow in the
wake of storms into Thursday morning as southeasterly flow
continues, with slow improvement to VFR expected areawide by
around 18-19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An active afternoon and evening of severe weather is underway as
storms have begun developing across the higher terrain of W TX and
SE NM. Copious amounts of low level moisture, along with strong
lift, instability, and shear will lead to a risk of severe
thunderstorms and flooding through the night. Please see the
mesoscale discussion that will follow shortly regarding today and
tonight's severe weather threat. Storms look likely to organize
into an MCS this evening and push east across the area bringing
widespread heavy rain. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
much of the area through Thursday morning. Look for widespread
rainfall amount of 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible.

The shortwave trough associated with these storms will move across
the area overnight. Storms will linger across the eastern Permian
Basin Thursday morning before redevelopment out west is possible
by afternoon. Strong surface heating along with moist, upslope
flow could lead to isolated severe storms in the higher terrain.

SW flow aloft will continue Friday into early next week bringing
with it more chances for showers and thunderstorms. We could see
storms develop across the area each afternoon as temperatures warm
well above normal and low level moisture remains in place. It
appears the next significant chance of rain will come Easter
Sunday as a stronger wave crosses the region. These storms will
again have the potential to be severe and contain locally heavy
rain.

Drier and much warmer conditions look to arrive by the middle of
next week as the upper flow flattens across the southern U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  76  61  77 /  80  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  80  59  86 /  70  30  10  20
Dryden                         63  78  62  80 /  70  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  62  79  60  84 /  80  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 55  79  56  81 /  60  30  20  10
Hobbs                          57  75  58  80 /  80  40  10  20
Marfa                          55  79  54  83 /  70  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  76  61  78 /  80  40  10  10
Odessa                         60  77  61  78 /  80  40  10  20
Wink                           62  81  61  84 /  80  30  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
143 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 /1243 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Strong thunderstorms are possible across all of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Some of the storms
may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. However a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
over southeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Frequent
lightning strikes will likely accompany storms, as will locally heavy
rainfall and the potential for flash flooding, particularly this
tonight when one or more thunderstorm complexes could form.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Strong, if not severe, storms will be possible each afternoon and
evening from Thursday afternoon through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             2 NE CARLSBAD           32.42N 104.21W
04/12/2017  E0.88 INCH       Eddy               NM   PUBLIC

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
652 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             10 SE BARSTOW           31.36N 103.28W
04/12/2017  E1.50 INCH       Reeves             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
702 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 E PLATEAU             31.06N 104.51W
04/12/2017  E1.25 INCH       Culberson          TX   STORM CHASER

            WIND DRIVEN HAIL. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100-150 YARDS.

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
713 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

TXZ060-067-068-130100-
Crane TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
713 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WARD...SOUTHEASTERN
WINKLER AND WESTERN CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pyote, or 17 miles south of Wink, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Wickett, Thorntonville, Pyote, Monahans Sandhills State
Park and Roy Hurd Memorial Airport.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 60 and 87.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3139 10320 3146 10327 3181 10295 3154 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 232DEG 33KT 3150 10317

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
756 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             8 S HALFWAY             32.44N 103.74W
04/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       Eddy               NM   STORM CHASER

            WIND DRIVEN QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ESTIMATED 70MPH WINDS.

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

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