Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An active afternoon and evening of severe weather is underway as
storms have begun developing across the higher terrain of W TX and
SE NM. Copious amounts of low level moisture, along with strong
lift, instability, and shear will lead to a risk of severe
thunderstorms and flooding through the night. Please see the
mesoscale discussion that will follow shortly regarding today and
tonight's severe weather threat. Storms look likely to organize
into an MCS this evening and push east across the area bringing
widespread heavy rain. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
much of the area through Thursday morning. Look for widespread
rainfall amount of 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible.

The shortwave trough associated with these storms will move across
the area overnight. Storms will linger across the eastern Permian
Basin Thursday morning before redevelopment out west is possible
by afternoon. Strong surface heating along with moist, upslope
flow could lead to isolated severe storms in the higher terrain.

SW flow aloft will continue Friday into early next week bringing
with it more chances for showers and thunderstorms. We could see
storms develop across the area each afternoon as temperatures warm
well above normal and low level moisture remains in place. It
appears the next significant chance of rain will come Easter
Sunday as a stronger wave crosses the region. These storms will
again have the potential to be severe and contain locally heavy
rain.

Drier and much warmer conditions look to arrive by the middle of
next week as the upper flow flattens across the southern U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  76  61  77 /  80  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  80  59  86 /  70  30  10  20
Dryden                         63  78  62  80 /  70  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  62  79  60  84 /  80  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 55  79  56  81 /  60  30  20  10
Hobbs                          57  75  58  80 /  80  40  10  20
Marfa                          55  79  54  83 /  70  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  76  61  78 /  80  40  10  10
Odessa                         60  77  61  78 /  80  40  10  20
Wink                           62  81  61  84 /  80  30  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
143 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 /1243 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Strong thunderstorms are possible across all of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Some of the storms
may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. However a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
over southeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Frequent
lightning strikes will likely accompany storms, as will locally heavy
rainfall and the potential for flash flooding, particularly this
tonight when one or more thunderstorm complexes could form.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Strong, if not severe, storms will be possible each afternoon and
evening from Thursday afternoon through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             24 NW FORT STOCKTON     31.14N 103.17W
04/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       Pecos              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON US 285 1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF
            REEVES/PECOS COUNTY LINE. HEAVY RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
422 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             25 E PINE SPRINGS       31.89N 104.38W
04/12/2017  E1.25 INCH       Culberson          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON FM 652.

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
443 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

TXZ058-074-122230-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
443 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN REEVES AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Toyahvale, or 17 miles east of Kent, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saragosa.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 10 between mile markers 190 and 209.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3095 10404 3105 10408 3124 10375 3101 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 245DEG 20KT 3105 10392

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
355 PM MDT WED APR 12 2017

NMZ028-122245-
Eddy County Plains NM-
355 PM MDT WED APR 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 355 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hope, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Artesia, Hope and Artesia Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3296 10463 3296 10448 3279 10437 3267 10477
      3278 10484 3284 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 241DEG 15KT 3278 10475