Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread
across the area this evening and overnight. Gusty and variable
winds are expected with these storms. A cold front with strong and
gusty northeast winds will push through the area this evening.
Winds are expected to remain elevated with some gusts through most
of the night. Low ceilings are also expected to move into the
area tonight and are expected to remain through 18z. Winds will
weaken around 12z and transition to the south Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Concern for today is potential for tstms, strong-severe, to develop
between 21Z-03Z across the NW-N CWFA and track swd thru the PB by
06Z and then points s. Some discrepancy as to whether the
strongest and greatest coverage of tstms will be pre or post
frontal. NAM12/TTU WRF are farther w, while GFS and high
resolution models are more east bringing tstms thru Midland/Odessa
areas mostly between 00Z-06Z. Frontal boundary is of importance
too because storms may attempt to back build (e to w) into the PB
possibly resulting a broken line. Mid level LR's of 8 C/KM along
with low level moisture will modulate SB instability with SB
CAPES around 1500 J/KG. Wind fields are not particularly strong,
but veering will promote effective shear to around 30kts. As such
we think there will be some severe multi-cells/brief supercell
storms with large hail and strong wind being the main concerns.
Going back to the front, a 3hr isallobaric high of 10mb will
track across the area this evening and with a very tight thermal
gradient the result will be winds that rip for a few hrs, 02Z-09Z.
As such we will issue a wind advisory including Lea Co,
NW-W/Central PB. High wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good.
Sunday AM will be noticeably colder with low temps around 40 and
gusty winds. Clouds are expected to hold in most of the day Sunday
and high temps will not make it out of the 50s in areas n and e
of the Pecos River. It will be warmer Monday despite a frontal
passage in the morning. Low level moisture will return Wed and a
few showers possible across the ern CWFA, but very warm across the
w including SE NM. Another front on Friday will interrupt the
warming trend, meanwhile the NW flow will continue with rising
heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  57  46  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  64  45  71 /  40  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  62  48  77 /  60  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  45  62  49  72 /  60  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  63  49  65 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          39  58  43  67 /  50  10   0   0
Marfa                          43  65  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  58  47  69 /  70  10   0   0
Odessa                         41  58  46  69 /  70  10   0   0
Wink                           45  61  45  71 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 7 PM MST this evening to 3 AM MDT Sunday for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

TX...Wind Advisory from 8 PM CST this evening to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     Andrews-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Midland-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 8 PM MST this evening to 6 AM MDT Sunday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

99/99/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
124 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-121930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
124 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 /1224 PM MST Sat Mar 11 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
southeast New Mexico, the Texas Permian Basin, the Trans-Pecos
Region, and over the mountains of southwest Texas. As a cold front
moves into the area this evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and behind the front. Some storms could reach strong to
severe levels with the main threats being isolated large hail and
damaging winds. Frequent lightning is also possible with these
storms. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms that develop well ahead of
the cold front across the Davis Mountains and adjacent areas to the
east will also have the potential to produce smaller hail and
lightning.

A High Wind Warning is in effect tonight for Guadalupe Pass for
strong northeast winds developing behind a cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
337 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2017

TXZ081-112215-
Big Bend Area TX-
337 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CST...

At 336 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles southeast of Marathon, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Brewster
County.

LAT...LON 2971 10305 2989 10330 3015 10288 3007 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 044DEG 21KT 3003 10298

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
337 PM MST SAT MAR 11 2017

NMZ029-033-112330-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
337 PM MST SAT MAR 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
MST...

At 337 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Lovington, moving south at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbs, Lovington, Buckeye, Humble City and Industrial Airpark.

LAT...LON 3315 10348 3310 10325 3269 10314 3274 10364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 356DEG 14KT 3305 10339

80

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