Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms this morning in the Permian Basin based on latest
radar trends. Tweaked sky grid and qpf grid this morning as well.

updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have arrived at MAF and are very near HOB, likely to
arrive shortly. Fog is developing at CNM but according to
satellite is very patchy and is not expected to remain for long.
HOB/MAF/CNM should become VFR 15-18Z. Only HOB is expected to drop
back below VFR tonight as low clouds develop in that area. All
other TAF sites are VFR and should remain so through the next 24
hours.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A west to southwesterly flow aloft is expected through the
weekend and into early next week across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico. Generally above normal temperatures are expected in
this regime with a lee trough/dry line a persistent surface
feature. The dryline is expected to be in the vicinity of the
western Permian Basin south to the Trans Pecos and Big Bend
by peak heating this afternoon. Weak forcing associated with a
weak shortwave along the dryline with enhancement from heating of
the higher terrain will spark isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms from the central Permian Basin south to the lower
Trans Pecos and Big Bend late this afternoon and this evening. A
few storms will be severe given surface based cape forecast of
1000 to 3000 j/kg and shear of 25 knots. Not expecting a
significant weather outbreak given weak large scale forcing with
the activity dieing this evening with loss of heating.

It appears the most significant chance of thunderstorms will come
Easter Sunday and Monday, especially Sunday, mainly across west
Texas, as a couple of stronger waves in the upper flow enhance
forcing across the region. The higher terrain will be the most
favored area for convection Sunday due to enhancement of lift
from topography and the influence of the subtropical jet. These
storms will have the potential to be severe and produce locally
heavy rain.

Dry with much above normal high temperatures are expected next
Tuesday and Wednesday as westerly flow aloft increases and pushes
the dryline eastward toward west central Texas.

A Pacific storm system is forecast at this time to track from the
Rockies to the southern plains late Thursday through next Saturday.
It appears at this time that the majority of the precipitation
with this system will pass north and east of the forecast area
but increasing winds look probable next Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  63  84  65 /  20  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       89  51  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         86  65  83  66 /  20  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  85  61  86  61 /  30  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  81  57 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          83  52  84  54 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                          81  47  81  48 /  10  10  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           86  61  85  62 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         84  62  86  61 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           88  58  89  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
535 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017 /435 AM MDT Sat Apr 15 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening from the eastern Permian Basin to the Big Bend. Large hail
and strong winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday. Large hail
and strong winds will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a 20 percent chance for spotter activation this afternoon
and evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
458 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

TXZ058-075-151045-
Pecos TX-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
458 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 458 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Verhalen, or 13 miles south of Pecos, moving east
at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Verhalen, Coyanosa, Toyah Lake and B F Goodrich Testing Track.

LAT...LON 3130 10361 3142 10329 3141 10328 3143 10326
      3139 10325 3137 10319 3136 10307 3138 10306
      3138 10301 3136 10299 3135 10295 3134 10293
      3097 10313 3107 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 247DEG 27KT 3122 10348

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
731 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

TXZ075-151315-
Pecos TX-
731 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
815 AM CDT...

At 731 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bakersfield, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield, Iraan and Iraan Municipal Airport.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 10 between mile markers 288 and 305.

LAT...LON 3090 10189 3086 10242 3098 10250 3107 10234
      3103 10229 3104 10225 3103 10221 3100 10219
      3101 10218 3099 10208 3100 10205 3098 10201
      3099 10199 3093 10192 3092 10188 3091 10188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 270DEG 24KT 3092 10238

49