Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

368 
WWUS54 KMAF 252118
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
418 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

TXC109-389-252145-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-170925T2145Z/
Reeves TX-Culberson TX-
418 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES...

At 418 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Orla, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Orla, Red Bluff Reservoir and Red Bluff. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 10417 3187 10417 3191 10392 3153 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 267DEG 18KT 3178 10403 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved NE over the past 24
hours, and is now centered over SE MT. This is still scheduled to
move into Canada by 00Z Wed, at which time a secondary trough will
be taking its place over srn NV.  This will maintain SW flow aloft
over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at least until the weekend.
To the far south, T.S. Pilar is just entering the Gulf of CA, and
with a little luck, some of its tropical moisture will get entrained
into the SW flow into the region.

Of more immediate concern is a cold front that has just entered the
NW Texas Panhandle.  Models are in general agreement in bringing it
into the nrn zones by 12Z Tuesday, and thru KMAF around 20Z.  Cloud
cover should keep the front from stalling diurnally, and convection
to the north may give an assist driving it south.  Models suggest
gap winds may be a problem thru KGDP Tuesday night, we've issued a
wind watch for this.  Isentropic lift will begin increasing Tuesday,
especially over the NE zones. Ensembles indicate anomalous PWATs of
2 std devs or better running just left of central Texas, up thru the
Panhandle, coincident w/a low-lvl theta-e ridge, all of which should
help maximize rainfall potential efficiency.  To top it all of,
models put the RR quadrant of a 250mb jet streak over the region
much of the day Tuesday.  For all these reasons, we've issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the eastern half of the CWA beginning tonight,
and continuing thru 12Z Thursday, as soils saturate and the pattern
won't change much thru then. This will alleviate confusion, rather
than issuing new FFAs every 12-24 hrs.  Further shifts can expand
westward if the situation warrants.

Thursday or so, the secondary trough begins ejecting up thru the
Rockies, w/upper flow transitioning from SW to zonal over the
weekend.  This will result in POPs gradually tapering off,
especially Sun/Mon.  Temps will try to rebound by then, but should
stay just below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  75  61  68 /  70  90  90  80
Carlsbad                       62  77  59  65 /  40  70  70  70
Dryden                         71  79  68  75 /  60  60  80  60
Fort Stockton                  67  79  62  70 /  30  60  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 60  71  55  61 /  30  50  60  50
Hobbs                          62  72  56  62 /  60  70  70  80
Marfa                          58  78  57  69 /  40  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           67  75  61  67 /  50  80  80  80
Odessa                         67  75  60  67 /  50  70  80  80
Wink                           66  78  61  69 /  30  70  80  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

29/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
211 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 /111 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will continue across the region today and tonight
especially along and east of a Hobbs to Alpine line. Locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concerns with these
storms and a flash flood watch is in effect. A few strong to severe
storms will also be possible with large hail and damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally
heavy rainfall that could result in flash flooding will be the main
concern. A flash flood watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

Strong gap winds are also possible through Guadalupe Pass Tuesday
night. A high wind watch is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a low probability of spotter activation this afternoon or
evening mainly over the Trans Pecos.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 PM MDT MON SEP 25 2017

NMZ034-252045-
Southern Lea County NM-
158 PM MDT MON SEP 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MDT...

At 158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Jal, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lea
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10343 3227 10356 3245 10324 3221 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 241DEG 7KT 3223 10340

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
334 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

NMZ028-TXZ058-252130-
Eddy County Plains NM-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
334 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY...NORTHWESTERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT/330 PM
MDT/...

At 333 PM CDT/233 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 23 miles south of Whites City, or 24 miles west of Orla,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Eddy...northwestern Reeves and northeastern Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 10435 3185 10443 3205 10427 3202 10402
      3175 10403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 232DEG 11KT 3183 10432

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