Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
146 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined cold front near LBB continues to move s with an ely
wind in advance assocd with surface low INVOF wrn PB. Meanwhile flow
aloft is from the nw with model indications of a minor shrtwv trof.
SB instability is focusing around the front (moreso just in wake
of it) with steep mid level LRs. There is good directional shear
along with sufficient bulk shear for at least a few severe storms,
anomalously high PWs favor local heavy rain too. Based on expected
frontal location storms will be favored to develop in NW CWFA
probably just prior to 00Z, tracking sewd. High resolution models
including HRRR/TTU WRF are in agreement. Highest PoPs are
warranted before 06Z/Sat. Post-frontal MSLP gradient favor breezy
conditions thru Sat PM, convection INVOF SW-S OK early Sat AM may
enhance winds some? Post-frontal high winds are still possible
thru GDP Mtns, but mixed signals in MOS data prevents issuance of
a headline ATTP, still very windy thru the GDP however. A wide
range of high temps is possible for any given locale on Sat, thus
low confidence temp forecast and as such a blended approach
suffices. Convective concerns are mostly decreased Sat, except
across the Lower Trans Pecos where best SB instability gathers. NW
mid level will persist thru Mon and atmosphere will have a chance
to "reload" with the possibility of nocturnal storms. Sun AM
storms are most favored across PB and late Sun night/early Mon AM
across farw and SE NM. Consistent signal in model data that 85h
temps will remain below 28C, even INVOF Rio Grande, and high temps
will likely be below normal into Tue. Mid level pattern will likely
exhibit a little more ridging from Tue-Thur with possible presence
of mid level theta-e ridge axis Thur, promoting an uptick in
precip coverage? Broadening cyclonic mid level flow will attempt
to suppress mid level ridge keeping temps in check late in the
extended, at least compared to the past week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  79  70  81 /  60  30  50  40
Carlsbad                       67  84  69  88 /  20  20  30  40
Dryden                         77  96  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  72  84  68  88 /  40  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 67  77  63  81 /  20  20  30  40
Hobbs                          64  79  64  81 /  30  10  50  40
Marfa                          66  84  64  86 /  20  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  82  67  84 /  50  20  40  40
Odessa                         69  81  68  85 /  50  20  40  40
Wink                           69  85  71  89 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-241845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
145 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 /1245 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early this evening for
areas from the southern Permian Basin into the Big Bend.

In addition, thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening, particularly along the cold front. Some storms may become
strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail,
and locally heavy rainfall.

Brief, strong easterly winds are possible through Guadalupe Pass
late tonight in wake of a cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

There will be a chance for thunderstorms into the weekend. The main
threats will be lightning and brief heavy rainfall and localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of Southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin late this afternoon and this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland