Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect until midnight...
zones updated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR visibilities in thunderstorms with gusty winds are
expected at KMAF, KINK, KFST through 15/02z. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected at the southeast New Mexico and west Texas
terminals the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will be gusty this
evening at the west Texas terminals before diminishing overnight.
More thunderstorms possible across the west Texas terminals late
Thursday afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another active weather day expected again this afternoon and evening
as intense heat gives way to severe thunderstorms. A developing mid
level ridge over N Mexico will keep nearly westerly flow aloft
across the area today. There are subtle hints that a weak shortwave
is crossing over top of the ridge this afternoon. Meanwhile,
temperatures continue to warm to near 100 currently with a diffuse
dryline setting up across the western Permian Basin south to the
Davis Mountains. Storms have already developed across the higher
terrain with initiation likely along the rest of the dryline within
the next few hours. MLCAPE values are nearing 3000 J/kg already
while deep layer shear is around 40 kts. These factors will allow
for storms to organize and quickly become severe. Lapse rates over
8 C/km will be more than sufficient for large hail (some over
2"). Storms will move off to east and weaken around sunset.

Very similar conditions are expected Thursday with temperatures back
into the upper 90's and 100's and more thunderstorms along the
dryline. The dryline looks to be a bit further west tomorrow so
storms will be possible across SE NM and parts of Culberson Co. With
similar atmospheric parameters to today, severe weather will be
possible again Thursday. The mid level ridge repositions itself over
the Desert SW Friday into the weekend. While heights don't increase
much, mid level temperatures rise into the mid 30's C across the
area Friday and Saturday. With deep mixing expected, highs will
climb above 105 across much of the Permian Basin and near 110 in
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys. A Heat Advisory will
likely be needed for much of the area. The dryline will mix
further east, but how far is still unknown so will keep isolated
storms in for now across the Permian Basin south to the Lower
Trans Pecos. Very hot temperatures continue Saturday before we
cool slightly early next week.

The upper ridge continues to build to our west next week with
increasing heights across the area. This will suppress most if
not all convection with high temperatures staying mostly in the
upper 90's and 100's.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 100  76 107 /  30  30  20  10
Carlsbad                       70 105  69 106 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         76  99  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74 103  76 108 /  20  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  97  72  97 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          71 101  69 104 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          66  97  66 100 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76 107 /  30  30  10  10
Odessa                         75 101  76 107 /  30  30  10  10
Wink                           75 105  74 109 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
206 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 /106 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon and evening, mostly
across the Davis Mountains, Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  Severe
storms are possible, which could produce damaging winds, large hail,
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours each
afternoon Thursday through Saturday across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains, Southeast New Mexico, and the Trans Pecos. Hot
temperatures and consequent low relative humidity will be the main
threats, but lower winds will limit greater concerns.

A few strong storms are possible Thursday, mostly across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin.  Damaging winds, large hail, frequent
lightning, and brief heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Very hot temperatures are expected from Thursday through the
weekend, but especially Friday and Saturday when temperatures will
likely be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.  A Heat Advisory may
be issued for many locations both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested by 400 pm CDT.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

TXZ058-075-142200-
Pecos TX-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
430 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southeast of Verhalen, or 27 miles west of Fort Stockton,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Pecos
and southeastern Reeves Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 229 and 238.

LAT...LON 3088 10333 3102 10345 3129 10312 3107 10294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 233DEG 25KT 3100 10333

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

TXZ068-069-142315-
Crane TX-Upton TX-
537 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRANE AND NORTHWESTERN
UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Imperial, or 15 miles northeast of Grandfalls, moving
east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, Tubbs Corner and Crane County Airport.

LAT...LON 3136 10275 3155 10275 3162 10217 3135 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 266DEG 38KT 3147 10264

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

TXZ074-075-142345-
Pecos TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
554 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Hovey, or 20 miles north of Marathon, moving east at
15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hovey.

LAT...LON 3036 10340 3057 10344 3085 10319 3047 10287
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 255DEG 14KT 3050 10334