Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

892 
WWUS54 KMAF 122105
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
405 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

TXC389-122115-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-170612T2145Z/
Reeves TX-
405 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3064 10340 3078 10357 3116 10321 3082 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 245DEG 8KT 3087 10332 

$$

TXC371-122145-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-170612T2145Z/
Pecos TX-
405 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY...

At 405 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles west of
Firestone Test Track, or 25 miles west of Fort Stockton, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Firestone Test Track and Belding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 10340 3078 10357 3116 10321 3082 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 245DEG 8KT 3087 10332 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

sn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Not many changes to the current forecast as the ridge rules. WV
imagery shows the west coast upper trough has begun its NE
trajectory, and centered over the junction of NV/UT/ID. Further
south, the upper ridge remains centered over Durango, Mexico, and
nosing NE into Texas. Surface obs/analysis shows the dryline
backed up against the western mountains, and this feature should
begin mixing east at any time. Despited warm temperatures aloft,
convergence along the dryline was enough to initiate convection
over the lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend yesterday afternoon. H7
temperatures on today's 12Z KMAF RAOB came in about 1C cooler than
yesterday, so a repeat of isolated activity seems likely this
afternoon/evening, as well as the next couple of days. Forecast
soundings yield CAPEs in excess of 2000 J/kg and steep lapse rates
each afternoon, and deep layer shear increasing Tue/Wed for
organized convection along the dryline. Wet-bulb zero heights are
getting to the upper limit for large hail, but high CCLs will
leave the door open for damaging winds, and we'll mention this in
the HWO.

As the west coast trough ejects up into Canada, the Mexican ridge
will begin building north into the SW CONUS, dominating the
extended forecast. This will keep the thermal ridge axis generally
just west of the CWA, allowing continued triple-digit temps many
locations each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  98  73  99 /  20  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       68 103  67 103 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         74  99  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          69  98  67  99 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  94  61  96 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 100  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                         73 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           72 103  73 103 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 /233 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Near critical fire weather conditions will persist in the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico into the evening
until wind speeds decrease.

A few strong, if not severe, thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across portions of the lower Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Strong winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall, and
occasional lightning strikes are possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of the lower Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin. Strong winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning strikes are possible with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

TXZ058-074-122000-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
223 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES AND EAST
CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
roughly 16 miles north of Fort Davis, moving slowly east.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Toyahvale, Balmorhea State Park.

LAT...LON 3070 10391 3091 10394 3098 10364 3071 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 261DEG 5KT 3082 10381

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
329 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

TXZ058-075-122115-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-Pecos TX-
329 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Saragosa, or 25 miles northeast of Fort Davis,
moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Pecos
and south central Reeves Counties.

LAT...LON 3108 10352 3104 10314 3061 10336 3081 10366
      3084 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 266DEG 8KT 3083 10354

sn