Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

156 
WWUS54 KMAF 170359
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1059 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

TXC033-227-170408-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170517T0430Z/
Borden TX-Howard TX-
1059 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BORDEN AND
EASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 10126 3114 10128 3119 10206 3209 10155
      3210 10118 3274 10117 3297 10104 3296 10066
      3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 234DEG 60KT 3331 10063 3151 10155 

$$

TXC173-335-383-415-461-170430-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170517T0430Z/
Glasscock TX-Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-Reagan TX-Upton TX-
1059 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR GLASSCOCK...MITCHELL...SCURRY...REAGAN AND EASTERN UPTON
COUNTIES...

At 1058 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Girard to 7 miles north of Stiles, moving
northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters and NWS employees. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, Colorado City, Big Lake, Rankin, Garden City, China Grove,
Valley View, Loraine, Westbrook, Bigby Corner, Lake Colorado City,
Lake Colorado City State Park, Inadale, Best, Saint Lawrence,
Colorado City Airport, Lees, Stiles, Hermleigh and J B Thomas
Reservoir.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 198 and 228.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10126 3114 10128 3119 10206 3209 10155
      3210 10118 3274 10117 3297 10104 3296 10066
      3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 234DEG 60KT 3331 10063 3151 10155 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Strobin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
742 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...Zones have been updated to include Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 226 (expires at 3 am CDT Wednesday)...which covers the
Central and Eastern PB and the Low Rolling Plains. A Pacific Cold
front will intersect a very sharp dryline for the potential for
severe storms. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
winds.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly flow will keep
the dryline at or east of KMAF, w/a few high clouds. Convective
temps will be too warm for cu development Wed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern is expected much of the week with severe
weather, strong winds, fire weather, and even a strong cold front
(for mid May) likely to affect the area. An upper trough
currently to our west will lift northeast into the Plains
overnight. This system has forced the dryline well east into the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. Dry
and windy conditions have developed behind the boundary with high
winds currently being observed in the Guadalupe Mountains. Even
stronger winds are expected this evening behind a Pacific cold
front so have issued a Wind Advisory for western portions of the
area. Red Flag conditions are also present in many locations
behind the dryline. Please see the fire wx discussion below for
more information.

Switching gears, the atmosphere remains capped east of the dryline
which is suppressing any thunderstorm activity at this time. Height
falls associated with the upper trough will act to pull the dryline
back west early this evening to about the central Permian Basin.
At the same time a Pacific cold front will quickly move east
across the area and collide with the dryline. Thunderstorms will
develop along the combined boundary as large scale lift and
cooling aloft arrives. These storms will likely become severe
given favorable deep layer shear, instability, and moisture.
Initially, large hail and maybe even an isolated tornado will be
possible before storm mode quickly transitions to linear with
damaging winds then being the main threat. These storms will shift
east into the Big Country overnight with cooler, drier conditions
behind the cold front.

Temperatures fall to near normal Wednesday with windy conditions
continuing across the Guadalupe Mountains. Another upper trough will
develop over the Rockies late Thursday and become more elongated
late this week to our west. Height falls associated with this
system will again pull the dryline back west late Thursday. Models
disagree with the position of the trough and how far west the
dryline will go. Indications are however, that severe
thunderstorms will develop once again on a retreating dryline
somewhere over the Permian Basin Thursday night. Once the trough
passes, a strong cold front will push across the area Saturday
morning. A few showers and storms will be possible along the front
as the boundary plows into a moist airmass. Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected behind the front this weekend with highs
below normal for a change!

Temperatures warm early next week to near normal before another cold
front makes a run at the area midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are being observed across the western two-
thirds of the region this afternoon as the dryline as moved east.
Rh's have fallen into the single digits and teens while southwest
winds are around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. A few
thunderstorms are not out of the question across SE NM this
afternoon and evening. These storms may produce dry lightning and
very gusty winds. Low rh's will spread across the area again
Wednesday and Thursday, but strong winds will mostly be confined
to the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  64  94 /  50   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       54  86  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  91  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  91  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  83  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  93 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           55  88  54  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Loving-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

99/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
740 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-180045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
740 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 /640 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are possible over the Eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
this evening and into tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall are the primary threats, though an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Strong winds will affect the Guadalupe Mountains this evening and
tonight, where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Very windy
conditions are also expected for the adjacent plains southward to the
Rio Grande, where a Wind Advisory is in effect.

Warm, dry and windy conditions will affect locations along and west
of a Gail to McCamey to Sanderson line through this evening. A few
lightning strikes are also possible, especially over southeastern New
Mexico early this evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Critical fire weather conditions may affect the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeastern New Mexico Plains Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms could occur Thursday and Friday, but mainly
over the Permian Basin.  Large hail, damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening and tonight for the
Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
932 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL OBSERVED IN CENTRAL MIDLAND

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
05/16/2017  M1.75 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL RANGED FROM QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE. OBSERVED AT
            THE WATER TOWER IN WEST MIDLAND.

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
938 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
05/16/2017  M1.50 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL OBSERVED AT LOOP 250 SOUTH OF THOMASON DRIVE

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
946 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               32.03N 101.90W
05/16/2017  E1.75 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 307 AND COUNTY RD 1120

&&

MATT.SALERNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
951 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MIDLAND           32.02N 102.13W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       Midland            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MATT.SALERNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1002 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     HAIL             ACKERLY                 32.52N 101.72W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HAIL RANGED FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON