Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

726 
WGUS64 KMAF 312222
FFAMAF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A storm complex is expected to form late this evening into the
early morning hours and track across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin. Even though heavy rain has not
occurred in these areas over the last few days sustained rainfall
rates over an inch per hour will be sufficient for rapid runoff
to develop, especially in urban areas.

NMZ027-028-011030-
/O.EXA.KMAF.FF.A.0002.170801T0300Z-170801T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, 
and Carlsbad Caverns NP
422 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has expanded the
Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast New Mexico, 
including the following areas, Eddy County Plains and Guadalupe 
Mountains of Eddy County. 

* From 9 PM MDT this evening through Tuesday morning

* A favorable pattern for the development of nocturnal storms 
  will occur tonight as rich and deep moisture will help sustain 
  storms. After storms initially develop in and near Lea County 
  they will move slowly to south and southeast increasing the 
  potential for heavy rain. 

* Flash flooding and flooding of low water crossing including 
  high water in urban areas are a real concern, especially since 
  this may mostly occur in the early morning hours. Total 
  rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 
  around 3 inches are possible. Low visibility in downpours can 
  also be expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-059>062-011030-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.A.0002.170801T0300Z-170801T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Andrews-Martin-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Including the cities of Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, 
Seminole, Lamesa, Andrews, Stanton, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, 
and Midland
522 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 /422 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for Portions of southeast New 
Mexico and western Texas, including the following areas, in 
southeast New Mexico, Central Lea County, Northern Lea County, and
Southern Lea County. In western Texas, Andrews, Dawson, Ector, 
Gaines, Loving, Martin, Midland, and Winkler. 

* From 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening through Tuesday morning

* A favorable pattern for the development of nocturnal storms 
  will occur tonight as rich and deep moisture will help sustain 
  storms. After storms initially develop in and near Lea County 
  they will move slowly to south and southeast increasing the 
  potential for heavy rain. 

* Flash flooding and flooding of low water crossing including 
  high water in urban areas are a real concern, especially since 
  this may mostly occur in the early morning hours. Total 
  rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 
  around 3 inches are possible. Low visibility in downpours can 
  also be expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

532 
WGUS64 KMAF 010903
FFAMAF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THIS 
MORNING...

.A storm complex moving very slowly across Southeast New Mexico 
and the Western Permian Basin is expected to continue to drift 
east through the morning hours. Moderate to heavy rain is possible
with these storms which could result in flash flooding, 
especially in urban areas.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-059>062-011500-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170801T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Andrews-Martin-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, 
Carlsbad Caverns NP, Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, 
Seminole, Lamesa, Andrews, Stanton, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, 
and Midland
403 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 /303 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast New Mexico and western Texas, including 
  the following areas, in southeast New Mexico, Central Lea 
  County, Eddy County Plains, Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy 
  County, Northern Lea County, and Southern Lea County. In 
  western Texas, Andrews, Dawson, Ector, Gaines, Loving, Martin, 
  Midland, and Winkler. 

* Until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning

* Flash flooding and flooding of low water crossing including 
  high water in urban areas are a real concern, especially since 
  this may mostly occur in the early morning hours. Total 
  rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 
  around 3 inches are possible. Low visibility in downpours can 
  also be expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Low confidence in models as initialization of NAM12 could have been
better with precip to the n. Even though recent model runs have been
consistent indicating a MCS will develop in E-SE NM Plains tonight
and track se-s we are concerned that storms this AM will be
inhibitive to redevelopment late this PM and or evening? However
the impetus for the development of this advertised MCS can be
argued to be dynamic instead of daytime heating. OMEGA and DPVA in
the 7h-5h layer does show a well defined area of lift wrt
time/area. In the low levels the NAM12 is consistent too,
depicting that the MCS will feed into the mstr flux maxima/theta-e
ridge which favors core of MCS slowly propagating from Lea-Gaines
into Winkler Co. Another more brief period of heavy rain is
possible in wrn Eddy Co/GDP Mtns. Indications are still that the
MCS would tend to move slow. Supportive of this is difluent 85h-3h
thickness indicating some back-building potential? A lesser 2nd
round of storms will be possible late Tue PM when the main mid
level trof axis within nw flow aloft moves thru. Timing is fluid.
Yesterday data favored a precip axis w-e across the PB 09Z-15Z
Wed, but now earlier 00Z-06Z Wed for PB. NAEFS ensemble data
generally supports this too. In summary this amounts to a
potentially moderate impact heavy rain/flash flood event with
moderate forecast confidence. Currently Flash Flood Guidance
averages about 3.5" for the SE NM/NW PB, lower for Eddy County, of
course much lower for urban areas. Most of these areas haven't
had much rain in the last week or so. We are reluctant to issue a
flash flood watch, but with total local amounts to around 3" for
SE NM/NW PB flash flooding is certainly possible. We went as far
east as Dawson-Martin-Midland Counties, but Lea Co/NW-W PB are the
most favored. Most of the rain is expected in the tonight-Tue PM
time frame. Deeper mid level drying in wake of theta-e ridge
continues to favor Wed PM-Thur PM as down days. NW flow will
persist into next weekend and there are some indication of a
substantial shrtwv early Friday AM or late Friday night. Chance
PoPs will continue in the extended across the Trans Pecos thru the
forecast. The general temp trend from previous run in MOS is
upward toward normal, especially Thur onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  84  68  86 /  50  60  40  20
Carlsbad                       70  86  67  87 /  60  40  30  10
Dryden                         76  93  75  89 /  20  40  60  30
Fort Stockton                  73  87  66  86 /  30  60  60  30
Guadalupe Pass                 65  77  61  77 /  40  50  40  20
Hobbs                          67  83  64  84 /  80  40  20  10
Marfa                          66  83  64  80 /  20  50  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  85  66  87 /  60  60  40  20
Odessa                         72  85  66  87 /  60  60  40  20
Wink                           73  87  67  88 /  70  60  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM MDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning for Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern
     Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning for Andrews-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Winkler.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
303 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-010815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
303 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 /203 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered across southeast New
Mexico and southwest Texas today. Some storms will produce brief
heavy rain and gusty winds with blowing dust. Thunderstorms will
become numerous to widespread in southeast New Mexico and spread into
the northwest Permian Basin this evening. Very heavy rainfall is
possible, which could result in flooding of prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

On Tuesday, numerous thunderstorms will continue in southeast New
Mexico, spreading across the Permian Basin and the mountain areas.
Heavy rainfall will remain possible across these areas resulting in
the possible flooding of prone areas.

Though thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and rainfall will be
of lesser intensity, thunderstorm chances will continue across the
area through Saturday. Widespread severe weather is not expected,
but locally heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding will
remain possible due to previous rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

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