Fire Weather Watch 13, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS at HOB will lift by late afternoon and clouds bases
elsewhere will remain mostly above 3KFT AGL. Otherwise windy
conditions will abate by 01Z with westerly wind less than 10kts
thru the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds will
shift from the northwest and gust to 20-30kts before 18Z,
continuing through 00Z before subsiding and backing from the west
once again.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday...a much calmer day is
in store for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico.

It appears based on sfc obs and radar data that last evenings
severe wx was caused by a retreating dry line (pushed west by
outflow from convection to the east) interacting with a mid level
shortwave.

Satl imagery and KMAF radar is showing that the center of the
upper low is just WSW of Lubbock. As the low moves east and the
trough axis passes across there could be some convection across
the Guadalupe Mtns...Northern Eddy/Lea Counties...and the Northern
Permian Basin. No severe wx is expected as temps will be
significantly cooler (below normal for a change) which would cut
down on the instability. It will be breezy today...but winds
should stay below Advisory criteria.

Ridging will move over the Southern Plains ahead of the next
system which is in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in dry
weather thru the remainder of the week along with rapidly warming
temps...up to 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday. Winds will be
breezy...especially Friday but will remain below High Wind and
Advisory criteria.

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will move into New Mexico
Saturday...then move slowly east on Sunday. Saturday looks to be
warm and dry. Moist Gulf of Mexico air will be drawn northwest
into Central...and possibly West Texas on Sunday. As of now...and
it is very early...models are hinting at a dryline developing in
the Central Permian Basin Sunday moving east late in the aftn.

Riding will bring warm and dry weather Monday. Yet another Upper
low will move across the South Central Plains next Tuesday and
Wednesday. This system looks like it will be a wind producer.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move through the area today
bringing cooler temperatures to the area. That combined with rain
across much of the Permian Basin has alleviated the fire weather
threat for today. One location that may see near critical or low
end critical fire weather conditions is the Big Bend along the Rio
Grande where temperatures will be warmest in the area and did not
see any appreciable rainfall yesterday. Given the forecast
uncertainty, decided not to issue a warning and will opt for a
Fire Danger Statement today for our southernmost CWA.

Increasingly warmer and drier conditions will return to the entire
area Thursday and Friday increasing the fire weather threat. However
winds will generally be below 20 mph except perhaps in Eddy County
which could see low end critical fire weather conditions. We will
continue to monitor this area for a possible watch or warning over
the next 24-48 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  78  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  82  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  70  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          40  74  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  78  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         46  79  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  81  52  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-300915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
410 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 /310 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible in the Big Bend
and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon and early evening. See the Fire
Danger Statement for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the
Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon or this
evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland