Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
207 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Widespread SHRA/TSRA spreading north from LA into SRN/SWRN AR
early this Sun afternoon...with much of the NERN counties
remaining dry...so far. The main forecast concern in the short
term will be the potential for some SVR storms across portions of
the SRN half of the CWA through this evening.

The warm front remains south of the state as of the 2 pm
hr...with most of the state seeing ERLY SFC flow and dewpts in the
50s. A SFC low will lift NE from the central Gulf Coast of TX
now...into extreme SERN AR this evening...with only portions of
the far SERN AR seeing the warm front lift overhead. As a
result...this area will have the best potential for seeing SVR WX
for the LZK CWA. Recent runs of the high-res near-term guidance is
suggesting a bowing line segment lifting NE from NWRN LA into
SERN AR later this afternoon...potentially moving as far north as
the Calhoun to Desha Counties. The primary threat with this
activity will be damaging winds...though some large hail will also
be possible. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible...as 1-2 inches of rain could be seen across these SERN
counties. As a result...an isolated flash flood threat will exist.

The threat for SVR storms further north/NW will be more
limited...but not totally out of the question. Being well north of
the SFC based instability...the primary threat further north and
west will be some marginally SVR hail. Portions of NRN AR will see
very little if any SVR Wx potential...though scattered to widespread
SHRA/TSRA will be seen.

Overnight tonight into Mon...the upper level shortwave trough to the
SW will lift NE over WRN AR into SRN MO...and additional SHRA and
some TSRA will remain possible. The threat for SVR storms will
lessen though...with maybe some small hail possible with the
strongest storms. Expect drier and calmer conditions for late Mon
afternoon and especially Mon night as this upper shortwave trough
exits the region to the NE...and SFC high pressure moves into the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Sunday

Models remain consistent in moving yet another southern stream
system through the area with precipitation chances right back in the
forecast after a brief respite from the unsettled conditions. A
blend of solutions will be used for this forecast period.

The period initiates with one system pulling away and the next one
dropping into central Rockies. I am sure this will sound familiar
but low pressure will spin up in response and drag another cold
front through the state. Most of Tuesday looks to be dry with
temperatures a touch above normal but some showers may make it into
the Northwest corner as the system approaches. As the low lifts
through the central plains, it will drag a surface front into
Arkansas Tuesday night, with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Instability parameters lining up ahead of the front suggest
potential for some strong storms. However, there will be a few
limiting factors, such as limited moisture return and the time of
day the front is moving through, limiting widespread destabilization.

Once the front clears early Wednesday, the closed upper low will be
moving across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. As such, wrap
around moisture will keep clouds, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms as well in the forecast. Temperatures will be cooler
by about 10-15 degrees on Wednesday.

The upper low will deepens rapidly once it gets into the Ohio Valley
late Wednesday into Thursday with deep northwest flow setting up for
an even cooler Thursday.

By the end of the period, high pressure is expected to slide
eastward resulting in southerly flow returning to the area. Models
diverge a bit over next weekend, especially with surface
temperatures. While the ECMWF and GFS have similar thermo profiles,
the latter solution advertises considerably more cloud cover and
therefore a more restricted diurnal range. Impressive WAA /
isentropic lift should overcome a bit of influence from upstream
right-exit jet dynamics. As a result, have leaned towards the GFS in
the grids next weekend. If WAA is even more robust, we may be able
to squeeze some showers out on Sunday. However, with low confidence,
have opted to keep pops below slight chance threshold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  71  52  74 /  80  60   0  10
Camden AR         61  77  53  83 /  80  30   0  10
Harrison AR       55  68  47  73 /  80  60   0  20
Hot Springs AR    60  73  52  79 /  70  40   0  10
Little Rock   AR  61  73  54  79 /  80  40   0  10
Monticello AR     63  76  54  81 /  90  30   0  10
Mount Ida AR      58  72  50  78 /  70  40   0  20
Mountain Home AR  58  70  49  74 /  80  60   0  10
Newport AR        61  72  51  74 /  90  60   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     62  74  54  80 /  90  40   0  10
Russellville AR   60  71  50  76 /  80  50   0  10
Searcy AR         60  73  50  75 /  90  50   0  10
Stuttgart AR      61  74  52  79 /  90  40   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...62 / Long Term...56/Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
330 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
330 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorm will overspread Arkansas this evening and
tonight, as an upper level storm system moves through the region. A
risk of strong to severe storms will be possible, primarily across
southern Arkansas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the
primary concern with any strong storms during this time period, but
an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Also, any stronger storms would be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. However, due to the fast-moving nature of the system, any
flooding issues with heavy rain are expected to be localized in
nature.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

The storm system will be pushing east of Arkansas on Monday, with
only lighter showers and thunderstorms expected. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible again Tuesday night into Wednesday
night, as another cold front moves across the state.

A few strong to possibly severe storms could occur Tuesday night
ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and large hail would be the
primary concern should any storms become severe. However, one thing
that will limit severe thunderstorm potential is the time of day,
with the thunderstorms moving through during the night.

Stay informed by monitoring the latest forecasts and statements from
your NWS office.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time, but any severe
weather reports are requested.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44/57/59

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
217 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

ARZ064-065-069-022000-
Drew AR-Lincoln AR-Desha AR-
217 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DESHA...DREW AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 217 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Snyder to near Old Milo. Movement was
north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello...                     Dermott...
Rohwer...                         Wilmar...
Arkansas City...                  Tillar...
Winchester...                     Jersey Point...
Plantersville...                  Lucca Landing...
McGehee...                        Kelso...
Ladelle...                        Green Hill...
Prairie Grove...                  Reed...
Jerome...                         Baxter...
Florence...                       Enon...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 9101 3377 9115 3373 9115 3372 9106
      3368 9103 3367 9104 3366 9109 3371 9116
      3369 9122 3360 9113 3356 9124 3352 9125
      3352 9135 3356 9135 3356 9145 3339 9146
      3340 9197 3379 9190 3384 9106 3379 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 201DEG 39KT 3328 9170 3326 9189

62

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