Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1142 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm development began around 04z and was largely tied to
the higher terrain of the Ozarks and Ouachitas in western and
norhtwestern Arkansas. However this activity will spread in
coverage and move east with time. Have TEMPO groups for TSRA at
most sites to account for expected convective trends. Expect some
occasional MVFR conditions in showers and especially
thunderstorms. Overall though, flight categories should mainly be
of the VFR variety. The front associated with this convection
will move through all terminals during the morning hours, with VFR
conditions to follow.

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PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Observational data indicate overcast conditions prevailing across
the state early this afternoon. Scattered, very light returns
were noted from KLZK radar across west central and north central
sections. Analysis of surface data indicates the warm front has
reached a line from just south of Searcy, to near Salem.

Upper level energy will continue to approach the mid south
overnight. Low level moisture will continue to stream northward,
aided by an increasing low level jet. By late tonight,
thermodynamic and shear profiles will be support of organized,
somewhat elevated convection. A limiting factor for widespread
convective development will be substantial convective inhibition,
as well as a lack of focused low level forcing.

Upper level energy will continue quickly eastward on Tuesday, with
precipitation chances diminishing from west to east during the
morning hours. Compressional boundary layer flow will support well
above normal temperatures for Tuesday. A cold front will approach
late in the period, but not in time to affect temperatures on
Wednesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Extended term will begin with surface high pressure building into
the area. High over the plains will continue to sink southward into
the region thru Thursday, bringing a rather quick cool-down to the
area. I doubt max temperatures will make it out of the 40's and
50's, which is a significant departure from what is happening in the
short term.

The high will retreat eastward fairly quickly, allowing a southerly
flow to reestablish itself Thursday night into Friday. High temps
should surge back up into the 60's on Friday and into the 70's on
Saturday. Another cold front will be approaching the area by the
Sunday-Monday time frame, which should make for another round of
thunderstorms.

Aloft, NWLY flow will eventually give way to weak ridging by the
weekend, as a closed low takes form across the southwestern US /
NWRN Mexico. Timing of these systems is always suspect, and the
models move it into the area just beyond the extended term. In any
event, this system should throw show shortwaves across the area in
the Sunday-Monday time frame.&&

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.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST MON FEB 6 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
1135 PM CST MON FEB 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MENA...TO
NEWPORT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 5 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TUESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

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VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

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