Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
909 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
KLZK radar indicates strong to isolated severe convection
affecting the western half of the forecast area. Convection
approaching from the southwest should provide an increased severe
wind threat through 09z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 622 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017)

AVIATION...
Forecasts continue to reflect the progression of current convection,
moving east across western sections of the forecast area. A
southerly near surface flow of 12-22 kts will be become
southwesterly between 12 and 18z.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 159 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Fairly quiet so far early this afternoon across the LZK CWA with the
exception of breezy SRLY winds. Regional radar imagery depicts the
linear cluster of SHRA/TSRA developing over ERN OK...with SHRA and a
few TSRA lifting NNE into NW AR early this afternoon. Nothing SVR at
this time.

Not a whole lot of changes so far with regards to SVR Wx potential
this afternoon and overnight. However...some details have
changed...such as timing and an increased SVR WX threat for winds
across SRN sections of the state.

The closed upper low to the west will continue to slowly drift east
this afternoon through Sat. As noted earlier...breezy SRLY winds are
ongoing...and have seen dewpts increase into the upper 50s to low
60s as a result. Given these modest dewpts though...and with not a
whole lot of increase in these values expected...this will continue
to limit the overall SFC based instability expected through tonight.

Due to this limit in instability...the primary SVR WX threat will
remain damaging winds given the impressive dynamics and SHR
associated with this synoptic cyclone moving over the region. This
threat will also be greatest in the SRN sections of the state this
evening...where some of the near-term high-res guidance is
suggesting a large bowing line segment or a few smaller bowing
segments traversing east across the state. Will state though that
the threat for seeing tornadoes...while not high given the limited
SFC based instability...will be highest in this region of the state
as well. Any tornadoes that do develop will be in association with
the leading edge of any of these bowing segments. Hail...while
remaining a possibility with any organized cells...will be a more
limited threat.

Latest near-term guidance has indicated a more slow moving line of
storms through the evening and overnight period. As a result...there
may be increased heavy rain potential...with rainfall amounts
ranging from 0.5 to over 2 inches possible through Sat morning. Some
locally higher amounts could be seen. Expect the threat for flash
flooding to exist given some training potential in a few areas.
However...this doesn't look widespread enough for a flash flood
watch.

Keep the Lake Wind Adv going for the current time and spatial
placement. However...this may need extending into Sat if the winds
persist at the current levels.

The storm system will slowly rotate over the region Sat...then push
NE of the area by Sat night into Sun. Some wrap around moisture will
keep some mention of SHRA and isolated TSRA for NRN sections of the
state on Sat...but expect all areas to see drying conditions by Sun.
These drier conditions will be short lived however as more potential
for SHRA/TSRA and even SVR WX returns to the forecast for the active
long term period.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The parade of storm systems affecting Arkansas will continue
through the extended periods...all bringing the potential for severe
weather. In fact, the long term period start off with the next upper
level shorwave impacting the area Sunday night and Monday. This
system will be an open shortwave and relatively weak. Still, there
will be enough lift, shear, and instability to sustain a few severe
storms. The next system will be much stronger, as a large closed
upper level low pressure system take shape across north Texas, and
moves across Arkansas Wed afternoon and lingering across the area
into Friday, followed by another system which is currently outside
the 7 day forecast period.

Each system will bring a weak cold front through the state, but only
subtle temperatures changes expected. Generally, lows will be in the
50s and highs in the 70s for the entire extended forecast periods.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Aviation...99

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