Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
530 PM CST THU Mar 9 2017

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions with areas of MVFR ceilings will
affect the Tafs to start the forecast period. A storm system then
cold front will move through the region, and bring showers and
thunderstorms to all Taf sites, especially northern and central
locations. A bit lower chance over the south. The storms will
produce MVFR ceilings and visibilities with patchy IFR conditions.
Winds will be south at 5 to 15 mph to start, then gradually swing to
the west and northwest then eventually north behind the front. Wind
speeds will remain elevated behind the front and be 10 to 20 mph
with some higher gusts. Conditions will gradually become VFR on
Friday, as winds remain elevated from the north to northeast. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 247 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Latest subjective surface analysis indicates a nearly stationary
front from near St. Louis, to near Wichita. Strong convection is
noted moving east into central Missouri. An instabilty axis was
analyzed from southwest Missouri, through eastern Oklahoma.
Additional convection is expected to develop to the south of
current activity late this afternoon. Near term forecast soundings
support MCS type development, which would then accelerate
southeastward during the evening hours.

The frontal boundary will move south-southeastward through the
forecast area by Friday afternoon. A substantial change in air
mass will be noted after frontal passage.

Small amplitude, northern stream energy will approach the state
early in the weekend. Precipitation is expected to develop quickly
Saturday afternoon, then diminishing from northwest to southeast
Saturday night. Forecast temperature profiles support winter
precipitation late in this event. Best chance for any winter
accumulations will be across northeast and east central sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday

Interesting forecast is shaping up for Sunday night into Monday
morning. Models are showing a well timed cold front to sweep through
the state as Low pressure tracks to the northeast from the state.
Overnight low temperatures are already expected to be below freezing
before a cold front approaches the state.  Models are producing
precipitation along the front...and with subfreezing temperatures
already in place it does appear wintry precipitation will be
possible.  Pinning down exact precipitation type while this system
is still 5 days out will be fairly tricky. Second, there are slight
model differences in the timing of this system with the ECMWF a bit
slower than the GFS. If the slower ECMWF pans out...impacts from
wintry precipitation will be minimal if any...as temperatures will
be above freezing as the precipitation moves in. The GFS moves
precipitation in a bit quicker with temperatures below freezing at
the surface...however temps aloft are above freezing in northwest
portions of the state...with below freezing temperatures aloft in
the northeast. As a result...if the GFS pans out a brief period of
freezing rain looks to be possible across the northwest before
temperatures aloft can cool...and transition to a rain snow mix.
Obviously at 5 days out, do expect models to come into better
agreement in regards to timing in the coming days. So continue to
monitor future forecasts for any updates as this could easily become
an all rain event with amounts totaling less than a half of an inch
of rain.

Behind this system, northerly flow aloft and at the surface will
keep temperatures below normal for this time of year for much of the
state. High pressure will eventually shift to the east by the end of
the long term and allow temperatures to return to near normal
levels. Along with warmer temperatures, moisture will be on the
increase and bring a return of precipitation chances to the forecast
as the long term comes to an end on Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     47  57  33  40 /  50  10  10  80
Camden AR         59  69  42  55 /  50  30  10  70
Harrison AR       40  55  32  38 /  70  10  10  80
Hot Springs AR    54  65  40  49 /  50  20  10  70
Little Rock   AR  53  61  37  47 /  60  10  10  70
Monticello AR     58  65  41  54 /  50  30  10  70
Mount Ida AR      54  64  39  47 /  50  20  10  70
Mountain Home AR  41  56  31  36 /  70   0  10  80
Newport AR        46  56  32  40 /  60  10  10  70
Pine Bluff AR     55  62  39  50 /  50  20  10  70
Russellville AR   51  63  37  45 /  60  10  10  80
Searcy AR         49  59  34  44 /  60  10  10  70
Stuttgart AR      52  60  37  47 /  60  10  10  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...55 / Long Term...61

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
700 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
700 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will affect parts of northern and central Arkansas
this evening and tonight. An upper storm system and cold front will
move through the region and Arkansas, and develop strong to severe
thunderstorms. An enhance to slight risk of severe storms will be
forecast for the northern half of Arkansas. The main threats will be
damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. Some of the
storms will go into the overnight and to early Friday morning. The
cold front will gradually move through the state and push the storms
out of Arkansas early Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

The aforementioned front will move through the region on Friday,
with precipitation shunted to the south. It will also start turning
cooler.

A storm system tracking along the front will bring rain back to the
area on Saturday. It will likely be cold enough in parts of the
north for a light wintry mix Saturday afternoon and evening. Light
accumulating snow will be possible, especially in the northeast.

By Sunday morning, a widespread freeze is in the forecast. This will
include much of the state. A hard freeze will be noted in the
Ozarks, with readings well into the 20s.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be need in northern Arkansas late this
afternoon and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/51/59