Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
531 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

The cold front continues to sag south early this Mon
morning...with low CIGs seen for most terminals behind this front.
Some very isolated SHRA were attempting to develop along this
front across SERN sections of the state. Will see some potential
for SHRA and maybe an isolated TSRA through this afternoon for
many sites...with primarily VCSH mentioned. The MVFR or lower CIGs
look to continue through much of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 328 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The cold front continues to slowly drop south through central
sections of the state early this Mon morning...with most areas
remaining dry. A few SHRA had occasionally developed along this
front over far ERN sections of the CWA...though more organized
convection was ongoing further east...east of the MS River. Much
drier air is filtering into the state behind this front...along with
cooler temps.

The cold front will continue to drop south into SRN sections of the
state by midday before stalling over SRN AR this afternoon. An upper
level impulse will move east over the NRN half of AR through this
afternoon...with some increased POPs for rain further north for this
Mon...with continued POPs for SHRA/isolated TSRA near the frontal
boundary across the south. Due to the abundant cloud cover...NRLY
winds and some precip...temps north of the front will remain
generally in the low 50s to low 60s for much of the CWA. near or
just south of the front...mid 60s to mid 70s will be seen this
afternoon.

The front will eventually move south of the CWA for Tue...with
continued cool conditions expected. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s
for all of the CWA. Chances for precip will remain...though mainly
for light RA or DZ with no forcing mechanisms and weak lifting this
far north of the front.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

A couple of systems will be working across the area during the
extended period with decent chances of rainfall, especially with the
first system. Medium range models are in very good agreement with
the first system but will lean towards the more consistent ECMWF
solution. There are some models differences with the second storm
system and a blend approach will be taken with it.

Frontal system will be located well to the south of the state on
Wednesday. However, an approaching short wave trough will interact
with this system and overrunning precipitation is expected with the
best chances over the south. There could be some locally higher
amounts of rain but widespread heavy rain is not expected at this
time. Temperatures will be cool with the expected cloud cover and
precipitation across the area.

Precipitation will end by Thursday morning with Canadian high
pressure building across the area in its wake. This will result in
dry and unseasonably cool conditions for both Thursday and Friday.
In fact, temperatures will actually be below normal to end the work
week.

Temperatures will be on the rebound Saturday as southerly flow gets
reestablished on the back side of the departing high. The next
system swings through Saturday afternoon and night but only slight
chance to chance pops are justified. High pressure returns for
Sunday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
306 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
306 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The cold front will continue to move south into southern sections
of the state this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm could be
seen along this front. However...no widespread hazardous weather
is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/56

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