Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA across extreme NW Arkansas will move ESE and
likely affect KHRO and KBPK between 00Z and 03Z. Brief heavy rain
will like reduce visibilities along with gusty winds that could
exceed 40kts. As the storms track further SE, KLIT, KPBF, could
see storms in the vicinity around midnight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and nearly calm winds will be the rule through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

With quite a bit of sunshine today and only some afternoon CU
across the state, temperatures have been steadily climbing
throughout the day. But, for mid to late August we are still at or
a bit below normal with temps generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Dewpoints have made temps a bit more uncomfortable, with
values ranging from the mid 60s to upper 70s.

Not many changes were made to the ongoing forecast during the short
term period. The one exception to that is rain chances for the late
afternoon and evening hours, mainly across the north. Previously
advertised shortwave is progressing eastward across northwest
Arkansas as of 1930z and seems to have provided enough lift to get
some rain and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. This activity
has been confined to northeast OK and southwest MO and given the
latest HRRR guidance will translate east and impact areas mainly
north of Little Rock.

Looking ahead, can't rule out some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday but activity shouldn't be too
widespread. The heat gets turned up a bit on Saturday as surface
high pressure becomes more centered over the area and mid level
ridging builds over and just south of the state. Heat indices
will likely make it to 100 in most areas, with the exception being
across the north. Some locations will flirt with heat advisory
criteria across southern/southeastern areas but current forecast
remains just below criteria attm.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

A flat ridge will be in place across the region at the beginning of
the long term, while a moist southerly flow remains at the surface.
Monday is of heightened interest to most people because of the solar
eclipse, and although only a partial eclipse will be visible from
Arkansas, interest is still quite high in the midday weather
conditions.

This could certainly change, but at the moment it looks like much of
the area will probably be partly to mostly cloudy, which could
certainly present a challenge to viewing the eclipse. The least
cloud cover will probably be in the northeast and perhaps in the
southeast as well. The very warm temperatures and humid airmass will
also result in 20-30 percent rain chances during the time of the
eclipse.

By the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, the upper level ridge will give
way to an upper level trof dropping down into the area. This will be
accompanied by a surface front, which should result in increased
rain chances on those two days. Cooler and drier air will move in
behind the front once again, and will allow max temperatures to drop
down below climatological normals in the Wed-Fri time frame,
particularly on Thu-Fri. In fact, there may not be any 90 degree
readings on either of those days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...32 / Long Term...61
Aviation...32

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
428 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-192130-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
428 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight
Isolated thunderstorms across northwest sections of the state may
move across the northern half of the area overnight into early
Saturday morning. The overall threat for severe weather is
low...but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is still
possible...along with some locally heavy rainfall in a few storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday through
Monday. The severe weather potential remains low at this time.

With increasing humidity values...heat indices will likely exceed
100 degrees across much of the area and could approach advisory
level criteria through Tuesday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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