Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
226 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any will reach severe potential. Temperatures
will be around normal values.

This afternoon the weak frontal boundary has moved back to mainly
over northern AR, and some convection was developing over the
area. Afternoon heating has also helped with convection
development. The morning convection had pushed out of AR. To the
southwest over northeast TX, a complex of storms was slowly moving
east associated with an upper short wave system. This area will
affect parts over southern Ar later in the evening. Dew point
temps remained in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while temps were in
the 80s. Winds were light from the south or light and variable.
Aloft northwest flow remained into the region, which has help push
upper short wave energy through the region. SPC day one has
moved the marginal risk to far southern AR. Although, an isolated
strong to severe storm may be seen this afternoon to evening due
to in place moisture and instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Forecast will start with late afternoon to evening convection over
northern and southwest AR. The northern along the boundary, while
the south with the weakening complex that may affect southern AR.
Short range models mainly have short wave energy moving over
southern to central AR tonight, and will focus chance POP in those
areas. The frontal boundary is forecast to stay over northern AR
or even push a bit more north into MO. Sunday will see the same
set up, with the late night to morning convection pushing across
southern AR. The atmosphere will remain moist and unstable,
especially in the heat of the afternoon to evening. The threat of
strong to severe storms remains low and isolated. Sunday night,
models again show a possible MCS moving from the Plains into AR
overnight, so will keep convection chances going. This feature
moves across AR Monday morning, then the afternoon heating Monday
afternoon may help again develop isolated to scattered convection
in the afternoon to early evening. Monday night again, as the
northwest flow remains into the region, convection may form with a
MCS as it moves from the Plains to AR. Temperatures will be around
normal values in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday...

Weak NW flow aloft will be in place at the start of the long term
period...with some precip chances remaining across NRN and NERN
sections of the state as some weak disturbances move over this
portion of AR. A slightly more organized upper level shortwave
trough will develop to the NW of AR by mid week...with chances for
SHRA/TSRA remaining for mainly NRN portions of the state as it moves
NE of the state Wed into Thu.

Late next week...an upper level ridge will expand over the Rockies
into the Central Plains...with the main upper trough shifting
slightly east. This will allow for temps to rise a few more
degrees...potentially into the mid to upper 90s for some areas
across the west/SW. While these temps will be some of the warmest
seen so far this year...these numbers will still only be a few deg
above normal. This upper ridge to the west will also limit rain
chances...with maybe some isolated afternoon convection possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  88  72  88 /  20  30  40  40
Camden AR         74  92  75  94 /  30  30  10  10
Harrison AR       66  84  70  88 /  20  40  40  30
Hot Springs AR    73  90  74  93 /  40  40  20  20
Little Rock   AR  73  89  74  92 /  40  40  30  20
Monticello AR     75  90  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
Mount Ida AR      72  88  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
Mountain Home AR  67  86  70  87 /  20  30  50  40
Newport AR        71  88  73  89 /  20  30  40  30
Pine Bluff AR     73  89  74  93 /  40  40  20  20
Russellville AR   72  89  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
Searcy AR         71  89  72  91 /  30  30  30  30
Stuttgart AR      73  89  73  92 /  40  40  30  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
parts of Arkansas this afternoon and tonight. The main areas would
be northern and southern Arkansas as a weak cold front becomes
nearly stationary over mainly northern parts of the state, and as an
upper level system moves through the region. An isolated strong to
severe storm may develop, with the overall threat low and isolated.
Gusty winds and hail would be the primary threats with any severe
storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday.
Some decrease in coverage is expected Tuesday through Friday. The
overall chances for severe thunderstorms is low during this period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time due to the isolated
nature of any severe storms.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44/55/59

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

ARZ007-012000-
Sharp AR-
236 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FULTON AND NORTHEASTERN
SHARP COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ravenden Springs, or 13 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east
at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Highland in Sharp County...
Hardy...                          Williford...
Armstrong...                      Ozark Acres...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 9131 3639 9131 3637 9128 3633 9128
      3633 9126 3625 9126 3625 9133 3621 9135
      3628 9154 3634 9148 3634 9145 3636 9145
      3644 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 291DEG 38KT 3633 9133

226

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