Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
650 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions will start the forecast period at all Taf
sites. Convection will only initially affect KLLQ with storms
southeast, while these storms are expected to move southeast and
gradually weaken. Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday night, convection is expected to develop again over the
central Plains, and move southeast and affect northern and parts of
central AR. The storms will be into northern AR after midnight, then
parts of central AR toward Friday morning. Strong northwest winds
and MVFR ceilings will be possible with the storms. On Friday, after
morning storms and patchy MVFR ceilings, VFR conditions will be seen
later in the morning and afternoon. Isolated convection will still
be possible Friday afternoon. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/
.FIRE WEATHER...

Overall, chances for any widespread rainfall will remain on the low
side for the next week or so. Another thunderstorm complex is
expected to move into Arkansas tonight, which will most likely give
some rain to areas of western, central, and southern Arkansas
through the early afternoon hours. Dry conditions should prevail
Friday afternoon through early Sunday before a week front moves in
from the north. Sunday will give the best rain chances as scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. Notably drier
air and dry weather will be in place through the first half of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Outflow from the MCS that moved into has effectively stabilized
the atmosphere across much of the state today. While a few
elevated storms did move back into portions of west and northwest
Arkansas later in the morning, any further convection has been
limited to the immediate vicinity of the outflow boundary put out
by this MCS. As such, while there remain a few storms in far
southern Arkansas, suspect there will be little in the way of
further storm development across the forecast area through the
evening hours. Later tonight however, another MCS is expected to
develop in Kansas and shift southeastward towards Arkansas.
Guidance is split on the timing of this, with some CAM guidance
allowing this to move into central Arkansas as early as midnight,
while other models bring storms in during the 4am-8am time frame.
Given that thunderstorm initiation has already begun in Kansas,
have given the CAM guidance some credence and have slight chances
for storms in the northwest this evening, with chance PoPs
spreading into the forecast area overnight. While confidence in
the occurrence of another MCS is fairly high, confidence with
respect to timing is not.

Friday should be similar to today, with convective debris clouds
lingering through much of the day and subsequently making
temperature forecasts problematic as they were today. Generally
though, upper 80s will be the norm for highs tomorrow. Did keep
slight rain chances throughout the day tomorrow, but depending on
how prominent/strong outflow from any morning convection is, there
may end up being little rain during the daylight hours tomorrow.
Saturday should be dry as upper level ridging begins to build in
overhead, but that will be short lived as rain chances return in the
long term period. For more on that, continue reading.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

There will be a ridge aloft to the southwest, with a northwest
flow locally. This will bring cold front through Arkansas on
Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be noted along
the front.

Slightly cooler air/below average temperatures will be
noted behind the front. This will not last.

Ridge will build overhead Wednesday/Thursday, with
temperatures going back up. Mostly dry weather is
in the forecast.

Will be watching tropical moisture to the south
toward the end of the period. Does not appear this
will be a factor, but will continue to monitor.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  90  73  92 /  10  30  10  10
Camden AR         74  94  75  93 /  20  30  10   0
Harrison AR       69  88  71  91 /  30  30  10  10
Hot Springs AR    73  93  73  93 /  20  30  10   0
Little Rock   AR  75  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  10
Monticello AR     75  93  75  92 /  20  30  10  10
Mount Ida AR      72  92  73  92 /  20  30  10   0
Mountain Home AR  71  89  72  92 /  20  30  10  10
Newport AR        73  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     74  93  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
Russellville AR   72  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
Searcy AR         73  92  74  93 /  10  30  10  10
Stuttgart AR      74  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...64 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to at times scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across southern Arkansas this afternoon to early evening,
then again over parts of northern to central areas tonight. A
isolated strong to severe storm may be seen, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

On Friday and into the weekend, the overall threat for organized
hazardous weather is expected to remain low. However, chances for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be greatest Sunday and
Monday, and mainly in the afternoon to evening. An isolated strong
to severe storm may be possible, but again the threat for seeing
organized and widespread severe weather will remain low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated due to the limited nature
of any severe storms.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

56/51/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     HAIL             4 S OMAHA               36.39N  93.19W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700225

JBH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
634 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

ARZ065-069-160015-
Drew AR-Desha AR-
634 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DESHA AND EASTERN
DREW COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McGehee, or 7 miles north of Dermott, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dermott...                        Arkansas City...
Tillar...                         Winchester...
McGehee...                        Reed...
Jerome...                         Baxter...
Halley...                         Selma...
Masonville...                     Collins...
McArthur...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 9116 3356 9124 3352 9125 3352 9132
      3354 9134 3352 9135 3356 9135 3357 9145
      3339 9146 3339 9162 3369 9169 3378 9146
      3360 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 312DEG 12KT 3363 9149

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