Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
124 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF CYCLE

Showers/storms will continue affecting much of central/southern AR
overnight, with deteriorating conds expected as storms move
through a given TAF site. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kts can be
expected with the stronger storms. Rainfall will slowly taper off
later this mrng, with a combo of MVFR/VFR conds expected.
Lingering showers/storms can be expected mainly over SERN AR later
in the PD as a cold front lingers in that area of the state. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first and second period
severe storm potential. Then some lingering lighter convection on
Monday, before the entire system move out of the region and
lessens its impact on AR.

Current convection is developing over MO this afternoon with
strong to severe storms. Over AR have only seen isolated showers
this afternoon with a cap indicated in the 12z KLZK sounding
holding overall convection develop. Later tonight, this cap is
expected to break as the upper system moves through the region,
and allow plenty of convection to affect AR. Otherwise,
temperatures this afternoon were mainly in the 80s, while dew
point temperatures were in the 70s. More organized convection was
over MO and rotating around the upper ridge. Currently the main
upper lift was moving from KS to MO, while a low level jet over
eastern OK to northwest AR may develop isolated convection a bit
later.

Timing of the upper storm system appears to be late evening in
northwest AR, to midnight over more northern AR, then as the upper
lift and cold front gradually sag south, additional convection
will be seen over all of AR after midnight to Sunday morning.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are expected, with
large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two possible. Plenty
of moisture, lift and instability will be present. Euro model
appears to be the fastest to sag convection into north AR by
midnight or a bit before, with GFS catches up with Euro
overnight, while NAM is the slowest. HRRR model runs a bit
inconsistent with latest more earlier convection into northern AR,
while previous run a bit slower. Moderate risk over northern AR
to Enhance to Slight remains over AR this afternoon, evening and
tonight.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Convection chances will ramp up quickly in the evening over
northwest to northern AR, as some lift and low level jet max moves
into the area. It will take a bit long to reach more of the
northern half and central AR as the upper dynamics move into AR
later. All forms of severe weather are possible with the storms.
The convection will last into Sunday, but severe storm threat is
forecast to lower on Sunday as dynamics weaken. Rain amounts
tonight to Sunday are expected from 1 to 2 inches with a few spots
a bit heavier to 2.5 to 3 with precip water values now up to 1.5
inches. On Sunday, the cold front gradually sags to southern AR
and focuses the convection over that region. The severe storm
threat lows as the dynamics push east of AR. A lower chance of
rain is held in the forecast over the south, Sunday night and
through Monday, before ending as the upper flow becomes parallel
to the boundary and stalls it near the AR and LA state lines.
Temperatures will cool a bit behind the cold front and lows will
be below normal while highs a bit to start, then warm into
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

A large area of low pressure will be over the Great Lakes to
begin the long term period with high pressure aloft over the
southeast and western U.S. This pattern will continue through
Tuesday then the upper ridge builds over Arkansas on Wednesday.
The upper ridge weakens Friday and Saturday.

The weekend cold front will be just east of the Mississippi River
Monday night and high pressure will be building over Arkansas.
Another front will move into north Arkansas Tuesday, become
stationary, and bring small chances of showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. The front slowly moves into southern Arkansas
Friday and should wobble to the north for Saturday. Rain chances
will continue Friday and Saturday. Will have to see how this comes
together but it could be the set up for more heavy rain...or at
least prolonged rain over multiple days. Expect temperatures to run
near to slightly below normal through the long term period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
1245 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop later today and especially this evening
and tonight across Arkansas, as an upper storm system and eventually
a cold front move across the region. Some of the storms will be
strong to severe, with large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes possible.

Later this evening and into Sunday morning, the potential for strong
to severe storms will continue, as a cold front moves through the
state. These thunderstorms could also become severe, with damaging
winds possible with the strongest storms as this activity looks to
form into a larger, more organized line or complex. Large hail and a
few brief tornadoes will also be possible as this line or complex
moves southward through much of Arkansas Sunday morning. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible, resulting in an isolated flash
flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday morning, the threat for seeing severe weather will have
decreased, but the cold front will still be dropping south across
the state. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across the southeast half of the state as the
cold front pushes through this region of Arkansas. Additional strong
to severe thunderstorms may again be possible during this period.

Calmer and drier conditions will be seen for Monday into Tuesday.
The threat for hazardous weather will then become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight and early Sunday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44/62/59

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

ARZ003>005-012>015-021>023-280500-
Pope AR-Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Stone AR-
Boone AR-Van Buren AR-Izard AR-
1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN STONE...NORTHERN
JOHNSON...NEWTON...WEST CENTRAL IZARD...SEARCY...SOUTHERN MARION...
NORTHERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHERN BOONE...SOUTHEASTERN BAXTER AND
NORTHERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pettigrew to near Walnut to Carver to near
Dugger. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Clinton...
Marshall...                       Jasper...
Calico Rock...                    Dover...
Hector...                         Western Grove...
Valley Springs...                 Dugger...
Olvey...                          Witts Spring...
Erbie...                          Duff...
Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area...  Maumee...
Devils Knob...                    Bohannon...
Lost Valley State Park...         Pruitt...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for western,
central and north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3611 9202 3585 9221 3561 9246 3538 9309
      3572 9370 3577 9369 3576 9352 3588 9352
      3589 9350 3594 9349 3597 9345 3608 9344
      3608 9348 3612 9348 3612 9330 3624 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 282DEG 44KT 3577 9360 3587 9332 3600 9305 3613
9295

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

ARZ004-005-012>014-021>023-280530-
Pope AR-Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Stone AR-
Van Buren AR-
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN STONE...JOHNSON...
NEWTON...SEARCY...SOUTHERN MARION...NORTHERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHEASTERN
BOONE...SOUTHEASTERN BAXTER AND NORTHERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM
CDT...

At 1149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Moore to near Cass. Movement was northeast
at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Clinton...
Fairfield Bay...                  Marshall...
Jasper...                         Lamar...
Hector...                         Western Grove...
Shirley...                        Witts Spring...
Erbie...                          Duff...
Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area...  Herron...
Maumee...                         Devils Knob...
Bohannon...                       Lost Valley State Park...
Pruitt...                         Elberta...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for western,
central and north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3619 9223 3571 9223 3561 9225 3542 9318
      3550 9370 3577 9369 3576 9352 3588 9352
      3589 9350 3594 9349 3597 9345 3608 9344
      3612 9305 3612 9289 3613 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 244DEG 46KT 3578 9305 3572 9374

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
111 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N  93.14W
05/28/2017  M62 MPH          POPE               AR   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700214

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
117 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE LONDON            35.32N  93.25W
05/28/2017  E60 MPH          POPE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700215

57