Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
708 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE

CDFNT was situated over the WRN part of the FA early this evening.
The bndry wl cont working EWD thru the overnight hrs. Combo of
VFR/MVFR cigs wl accompany the fnt, along with SCTD showers and a
few storms. Confidence in overall areal coverage not that great,
so went with VCNTY in the fcst. Drier air wl move in behind the
fnt with VFR conds expected Sun. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Much of the widespread SHRA/TSRA has moved SE of the CWA early this
afternoon...with just some lingering SHRA across SERN sections of
the state. A mostly cloudy sky continues...and potential for SHRA
and a few TSRA remains as a cold front to the west of the CWA moves
closer. This front will push ESE into the CWA later this
afternoon...then move through the CWA this evening and overnight. Do
think some additional convective activity will develop along/ahead
of this front as it progresses across the area. However...have only
kept chance POPs mentioned at this time. A couple strong storm may
also be seen...but the overall threat for SVR Wx has become more
limited.

Will then see POPs decrease this evening and overnight from the NW
to SE as the front moves SE of the state. Drier and more stable air
will move into the state by Sun...with quieter conditions expected
for the rest of the short term period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

A large upper trough is expected to remain in place over the eastern
half of the CONUS from Monday night through the latter part of the
work week.

Under the upper trough...a relatively cool but unsettled weather
pattern will remain in place over Arkansas. The upper trough will
cause some on and off shower and thunderstorm chances to remain in
the forecast from Monday night through Wednesday. It will not rain
the entire time...but scattered showers and storms will be possible
each afternoon due to the cool air aloft. There is expected to be an
increased coverage of showers and storms from early Tuesday morning
through Tuesday afternoon as a stronger shortwave trough rotates
over the state in the larger trough axis. This trough will spread
some large scale forcing for ascent over the state and will send a
weak cold front southeast across Arkansas on Tuesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany these features
as they move across Arkansas. No severe weather is expected at this
time. Temperatures are expected to remain in the lower to mid 70s
for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Skies are expected to clear out on Thursday as the upper trough
shifts east a bit allowing a shortwave ridge to move east towards
Arkansas. This ridging should hold through Friday allowing
temperatures to warm up into the upper 70s on Thursday and lower to
mid 80s on Friday under mostly sunny skies. The next upper trough is
expected to approach Arkansas from the west/southwest from Saturday
through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
accompany the trough whenever it moves over Arkansas. If it holds
off until Saturday night or Sunday morning...Saturday will likely be
warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s under partly cloudy skies.
If the trough is a bit faster to move over the South
Plains...temperatures may be held down as rain chances increase.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Good chances of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast today
as a cold front pushes into Arkansas from the west.

Any severe weather will be spotty, and mainly over the southern half
of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the main concerns.
Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding.

By tonight, precipitation will shift into the southern and eastern
counties, with rain ending farther northwest behind the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

The aforementioned front will exit Arkansas to the east Sunday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will end as the front moves out
of the state. Dry conditions will persist through Monday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Given the possibility of only isolated severe storms today and
tonight, spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

51/46

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