Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
312 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Surface low pressure was anchored over north central Texas this
afternoon, with a stationary boundary stretching northeast into
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Ascent across this
region has led to a dramatic increase in convection this
afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms noted across
western, northwestern, and even north central Arkansas. Observed
rainfall rates have been in the 1.50 inch per hour range so far in
the heavier bands, with Highfill receiving over 2 inches between
17z-19z. Flash flooding has already become a concern, with
saturated soils and heavy rains leading to several water rescues
in the Fayetteville and Rogers areas already today.

Widespread 2-4 inch accumulations still appear likely across
central and northern Arkansas through the remainder of today and
tonight. This initial push of convection will be followed by a
second round later tonight as stronger forcing for ascent moves in
ahead of the upper low that will be approaching. As such, locally
heavier amounts will not be out of the question. Storm motions,
whether this afternoon, or with the cold front later tonight, will
be roughly parallel to the lines of convection so training cells
and resultant flash flooding will be an issue. Models are still
insistent on a PWAT plume of roughly 2" along the cold front later
tonight. In addition to northern Arkansas, suspect there will be
a considerable flash flooding threat in southern and southeastern
Arkansas tonight along the cold front as it moves through.

The other concern will be severe storms. The special release 18z
sounding shows and uncapped environment with considerable CAPE in
place, on the order of 3,700 J/kg. Any storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening will certainly have plenty of instability
to work with. The limiting factor will be shear as it pertains to
organized convection. Thus through this evening large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threat in addition to flash
flooding. While shear isn't the best this afternoon, it will
improve this evening and tonight ahead of the cold front as the
low level jet kicks in. Model soundings suggest convection for
central and southern Arkansas will still be surface-based, so the
threat of severe storms will remain well into the evening and
overnight hours.

By daybreak Sunday morning, the cold front will be in central to
eastern Arkansas and working its way eastward. Some convection
will lag the front but the risk of any strong to severe storms
will be nearly over with by daybreak I believe.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday night Through Saturday

On Sunday night, the cold front will be moving south and east of the
area, with cooler air moving in behind it. As the closed upper low
passes north of the area, there will be some wraparound cloud cover
but this should clear out Monday, with the beginning of the week
being fairly pleasant.

Speaking of the front, as it hits nearly parallel upper flow to the
south of the state, it will stall out. As an upper trough digs down
into the Rockies, the flow will amplify again, and this will push
the boundary back to the north as a warm front around Tuesday. The
front looks to stall out somewhere over Arkansas, with several waves
moving through and interacting with it. This will make showers and
thunderstorms a good possibility through the end of the week.

By late in the week, surface low pressure will form along the front,
which will give it momentum. Of course, it looks like there will be
a cutoff upper low dropping down into the southern plains into
possibly the Arklatex region which would also give it a push.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  71  47  71 /  90  90  10   0
Camden AR         62  70  47  77 / 100  50  10   0
Harrison AR       63  65  42  67 /  90  50  10  10
Hot Springs AR    62  67  47  74 /  90  40  10   0
Little Rock   AR  68  71  48  74 / 100  70  10   0
Monticello AR     69  71  51  76 /  90  90  10   0
Mount Ida AR      60  65  45  74 / 100  30  10   0
Mountain Home AR  66  69  43  68 /  90  60  10  10
Newport AR        69  72  49  70 /  90  90  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  70  49  74 / 100  80  10   0
Russellville AR   64  68  45  73 /  90  50  10   0
Searcy AR         69  72  47  72 /  90  80  10   0
Stuttgart AR      70  71  50  73 /  90  90  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-
Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-
Woodruff-Yell.

Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
evening FOR Bradley-Calhoun-Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-
Ouachita.

&&

Short Term...64 / Long Term...57

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
304 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ003-012-021-292045-
Johnson AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-
304 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...WESTERN
NEWTON AND SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Devils Knob, or 21 miles north of Clarksville, moving north at 60
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Jasper...
Erbie...                          Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area...
Red Bank...                       Devils Knob...
Lost Valley State Park...         Capps...
Walnut...                         Pruitt...
Bellefonte...                     Alpena...
Batavia...                        Bear Creek Springs...
Marble Falls...                   Catalpa...
Yale...                           Ridgeway...
Fallsville...                     Swain...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 9296 3565 9340 3566 9370 3577 9369
      3576 9352 3588 9352 3589 9350 3594 9349
      3597 9345 3608 9344 3608 9348 3612 9348
      3612 9330 3639 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 197DEG 51KT 3577 9348

62

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