Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
347 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Bands of SHRA lifting NW early this Thu morning across much of the
SERN half of the CWA as the remnants of TS Harvey move closer to the
state. The center of Harvey as of around 3 am was located just SW of
Monroe, LA...and will lift NE over extreme SE AR near the AR/LA/MS
intersection near Eudora and Lake Village by late this morning.
Expect the center of Harvey to be over NW MS and W TN by midnight
Fri morning...continuing to lift NE away from AR by sunrise Fri.

Not many changes expected to the forecast for this morning as the
overall pattern looks similar to Thu evening data. This keeps the
heaviest rainfall across the SERN third of the CWA...with generally
2 or more inches possible along and east of a line from
Hermitage...to Pine Bluff...to Des Arc and Patterson. Amounts
exceeding 3 inches will be possible along and east of a line from
Monticello to Clarendon...where locally higher amounts nearing 4
inches could be seen. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch in the current
locations...continuing through 00Z Fri. Think most of the precip
will be moving out of the state by that time that an extension in
time will not be needed. As for locations further NW...expect a
fairly sharp gradient in rainfall amounts the further west of the
center of Harvey you go.

Winds will be breezy across portions of the CWA as the pressure
gradient tightens as the center of Harvey moves over SERN AR.
Portions of central into ERN and NERN AR could see sustained winds
exceeding 20 mph...with gusts over 30 mph possible. Do not expect to
make any changes regarding the Wind Adv.

As Harvey lifts NE of the area this evening and especially on
Fri...expect drier and calmer conditions to move into the state for
Fri...with a clearing sky expected.  Temps will warm back into the
80s for most areas...which will again be just below normal for the
first day of Sep. The drier conditions will then persist into the
first part of the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Some ridging aloft will occur over the southeast United States this
weekend. This will result in dry weather locally, and temperatures
closer to seasonal.

The warmup will be short-lived as a big shortwave tracks from the
upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and toward New England early
next week. by Tuesday, a deep trough will be noted across the
eastern United States, with a prominent ridge over the west. As
troughing occurs, a cold front will push toward Arkansas from the
north. That will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

After the front pushes through the region, it will be dry and cooler
on Wednesday, with below average temperatures in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  66  82  60 /  60  30   0   0
Camden AR         78  66  87  67 /  80  10   0   0
Harrison AR       80  59  79  58 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    79  66  85  66 /  60  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  67  84  66 /  80  20   0   0
Monticello AR     75  67  83  66 / 100  30   0   0
Mount Ida AR      81  63  85  64 /  40  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  81  63  80  59 /  20  10   0   0
Newport AR        76  66  81  60 /  60  40  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  66  83  66 / 100  30   0   0
Russellville AR   82  65  85  65 /  40  10   0   0
Searcy AR         76  66  81  62 /  70  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  67  82  64 /  90  40  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
FOR Arkansas-Faulkner-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lonoke-
Monroe-Prairie-Pulaski-White-Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln-Monroe.

&&

Short Term...62 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
324 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
324 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across much of the
southeast two thirds of the state through tonight as the remnants
of Tropical Storm Harvey lift northeast over extreme southeast
Arkansas. Some heavy rainfall will remain possible over the
southeastern third of the state...with rainfall amounts
exceeding 2 inches along and east of a line from Hermitage...to
Pine Bluff...to Des Arc to Patterson. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3
inches may be seen along and east of a line from Monticello to
Clarendon...with locally higher amounts near 4 inches possible.
As a result...a flash flood threat will exist in this southeastern
region of the state through this evening.

Winds will be breezy for portions of the state today as well.
Winds of 20 to 30 mph could be seen for portions of central into
eastern and northeastern areas through this afternoon. Gusts could
exceed 35 mph occasionally. Winds further west and northwest
should be lighter...but remain somewhat breezy.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey will be moving northeast of
the state by Friday morning...with chances for precipitation
ending from west to east. As a result...the threat for hazardous
weather will become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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