Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR ceilings will be seen at all Taf sites to start the
forecast. Monday morning, areas of MVFR ceilings with patchy fog and
lower clouds will be possible. Isolated IFR conditions will also be
possible in spots. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of AR will continue to slowly move east this morning
and into the afternoon. A weak frontal boundary and some upper
shortwave energy will interact and develop the convection. Southern
AR will only see isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm today.
Winds will be light and variable of light from the east to south to
start, then become southeast to southwest at 5 to 10 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 341 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the chance of rain
each day, and consequently a temperature forecast. The overall
threat of strong to severe storms will remain quite low and
isolated. Heavy rain with a risk of flooding will be possible.

Currently an area of convection was moving northeast over western
AR, and will continue to move northeast this morning. Some heavy
rain will be seen, while the risk of any other severe weather
will be low. This is associated with the weak frontal boundary
over AR, and as an upper level weather system moves through the
region. The upper zonal flow continues over the region, and short
range models do show some upper lift currently moving across AR
and developing the convection. The weak frontal boundary also
remains nearly stationary over northwest to northeast AR. Areas of
patchy fog, dense in a few spots, was also noted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Forecast will start with the highest POP over western to northern
AR with likely, while a chance over much of the rest of AR. The
frontal boundary is expected to drift a bit more north, while the
upper shortwave energy moves through AR today. A lowering of POP
is forecast for the afternoon, from west to east. Tuesday night
will see a much lower chance of rain with the boundary expected to
be north of AR, and much less upper shortwave energy seen in the
models. Wednesday will continue the trend of lowering POP. The
upper high pressure ridge builds in over the region, especially in
eastern AR. The best chances of convection will be over western to
northwest with some weak shortwave energy. Wednesday night, a bit
more upper energy is seen in the models, and POP chances are
higher in northwest AR. Also, the threat for severe storms will
remain low, while heavy rain with some localized flooding will be
the main threat. Finally, temperatures will again start below
normal levels today, then warm a bit closer to normal values on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

The long term will remain unsettled as a quasi-zonal flow pattern
continues over the northern half of the continental United States. A
shortwave trough will pass by to the north of Arkansas on Thursday,
followed by another on Saturday. This will keep a frontal boundary
situated near, or perhaps just in, the northern part of the state
through the period essentially. Meanwhile, high pressure to the
south of the state will keep a return flow pattern in place as well.
All of this means that warm, though likely just below normal, and
humid conditions will stick around through the period. Additionally,
this setup will also mean chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day, with perhaps a more diurnal trend to precip chances late in the
weekend after the second upper trough moves east and upper heights
build just a tad over the region.

&&

.Solar eclipse thoughts...

Now that August 21st, the day of the much talked about total solar
eclipse, is in the realm of our 7 day forecast I thought it may be
useful to offer up some initial thoughts about cloud cover, etc.

First off, this is still 6 days away, so this will just be a general
overview. Details, too uncertain at this time to speak to, will
ultimately determine what kind of viewing experience Arkansans have.

Now that the disclaimer is done with, let's move on. What seems
relatively clear, is that models are keying in on some sort of upper
trough near the west coast Sunday night into Monday, with otherwise
active and zonal upper flow across the northern half of the United
States on Monday. Other seemingly agreed upon large scale pattern
features are the presence of upper high pressure over the far
southeast, in the NE Gulf of Mexico or Florida Panhandle. This would
yield southerly flow into Arkansas at the surface. As mentioned, the
details make all the difference in the world. Those are hardly
agreed upon at this time. The GFS model is much more pessimistic
with regard to clouds and rain chances. The ECMWF, to offer a
little hope, is much less pessimistic. Will it be cloudy and
rainy? Time will tell, which is why I would encourage you to
continue monitoring forecasts in the coming days and not
necessarily alter any viewing plans you have just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  74  91  75 /  60  20  20  20
Camden AR         90  76  93  76 /  30   0  10  10
Harrison AR       85  72  89  73 /  60  20  30  50
Hot Springs AR    85  76  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  85  75  91  77 /  50  10  10  10
Monticello AR     89  76  92  76 /  30  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      85  75  90  74 /  40   0  10  20
Mountain Home AR  86  72  90  73 /  60  20  20  50
Newport AR        85  75  90  75 /  60  20  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     87  75  92  77 /  40  10  10  10
Russellville AR   84  75  92  75 /  60  10  10  30
Searcy AR         85  74  92  75 /  60  20  20  10
Stuttgart AR      85  75  92  76 /  50  10  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...59 / Long Term...64

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today, especially over the northern half of Arkansas. Only an
isolated strong to severe storm will be possible, with strong
gusty winds the primary threat. Also, stronger storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, which could lead to
localized flooding. Additional, patchy fog will develop, dense in
spots, early this morning and again tonight, especially in those
areas that see rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day,
especially in the afternoon to evening. Through the period, the
overall severe storm threat will be low and isolated. Any stronger
storm will possibly produce strong gusty winds, small hail and
heavy downpours. The heavy rain could lead to localized flash
flooding.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59/64

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
436 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

ARZ004-005-012>014-021>024-030>033-151030-
Pope AR-Stone AR-Van Buren AR-Cleburne AR-Baxter AR-Marion AR-
Searcy AR-White AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Logan AR-Faulkner AR-
Conway AR-
436 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON...SEARCY...VAN BUREN...
SOUTH CENTRAL BAXTER...NORTHEASTERN YELL...POPE...WESTERN STONE...
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN MARION...
WESTERN CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN CONWAY...NORTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND
WEST CENTRAL WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 433 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over Johnson county, with the strongest near Holman,
or 14 miles east of Clarksville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

The storms will produce very heavy rain which could lead to
localized flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Also small hail
and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Clarksville...
Heber Springs...                  Paris...
Clinton...                        Fairfield Bay...
Marshall...                       Dardanelle...
Lamar...                          Dover...
London...                         Greers Ferry...
Magazine...                       Quitman...
Knoxville...                      Guy...
Subiaco...                        Hartman...
Rose Bud...                       Hector...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9186 3530 9291 3525 9318 3528 9324
      3532 9327 3524 9328 3513 9388 3574 9346
      3614 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 240DEG 49KT 3552 9322

59

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
528 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

ARZ021>023-030-031-038-151130-
Pope AR-Johnson AR-Van Buren AR-Logan AR-Yell AR-Conway AR-
528 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LOGAN...SOUTHERN
JOHNSON...WESTERN VAN BUREN...NORTH CENTRAL CONWAY...NORTH CENTRAL
YELL AND POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

At 526 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over Johnson and northern Logan, with the strongest
near Subiaco, or 7 miles northeast of Paris, moving east at 40 mph.

The storms will produce very heavy rain which could lead to
localized flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Also small hail
and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Clarksville...
Paris...                          Dardanelle...
Atkins...                         Pottsville...
Lamar...                          Dover...
London...                         Knoxville...
Subiaco...                        Hartman...
Hector...                         Scranton...
Lake Dardanelle State Park...     Happy Bend...
Dabney...                         Hattieville...
Hoyt...                           Jerusalem...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9385 3531 9381 3536 9381 3539 9379
      3536 9375 3538 9371 3545 9371 3551 9369
      3571 9263 3533 9263 3512 9336 3522 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 255DEG 35KT 3537 9364

59

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

ARZ016-024-025-033-034-046-151245-
White AR-Independence AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-Jackson AR-
Cleburne AR-
642 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDEPENDENCE...
CENTRAL WOODRUFF...NORTHEASTERN PRAIRIE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE...NORTHWESTERN LONOKE AND WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL
745 AM CDT...

At 638 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area strong
thunderstorms over eastern Faulkner County, with the strongest over
Gravel Hill, or 12 miles west of Searcy, moving east at 25 mph.

The storms will produce very heavy rain which could lead to
localized flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Flooding has
been noted over Faulkner County, with 1 to 2 inches of rain already
falling. Also small hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Searcy...                         Augusta...
Beebe...                          Bald Knob...
Judsonia...                       Kensett...
Higginson...                      Pangburn...
Patterson...                      Pleasant Plains...
Russell...                        West Point...
Tupelo...                         McCrory...
Crosby...                         Pryor...
Hurricane Lake WMA...             Gravel Hill...
Steprock...                       McRae...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9200 3553 9195 3558 9120 3504 9117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1138Z 255DEG 22KT 3528 9195

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
705 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE DAMASCUS          35.39N  92.40W
08/15/2017  M7.20 INCH       VAN BUREN          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL... ALTHOUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN HAD
            FALLEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 3-4 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700256

JHOOD