Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will traverse Arkansas
during the TAF period, with prevailing conditions largely mvfr to
ifr. After Cindy passes on Friday, focus will then shift to
convection associated with a cold front moving in from the plains.
Winds will be gusty as Cindy passes, switching around to the west
and northwest afterward.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Forecast philosophy remains constant during this period. Latest
satellite, radar, and surface data indicate the center of the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy is just south of Shreveport. This
system will make a turn to the northeast early the forecast
period.

Overall moisture, which is quite anomalously high, associated with
this system will be available to support efficient rainfall
producing convection overnight and on Friday. Forecasts have been
refined to indicate the expected timing and locations of the heavy
rainfall.

The potential for excessive rainfall should be move east of the
forecast area by Friday evening.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Wednesday
A much quieter wx pattern wl be noted over AR for much of the PD.
The aforementioned cold front wl have shifted to the S of the area
by Sat night, with drier air advecting into the state. Sfc high
pres wl persist over the Mid-South heading into the early part of
the work week. NWLY flow aloft is fcst to bring an impulse or two
SEWD thru the area. However, moisture lvls are not all that
impressive at this point, so left out any mention of precip.

By the middle of next week, the sfc high wl have shifted far enough
to the E to allow S/SELY winds to return. This wl result in warm and
more humid conds, with just an outside chance of a stray shower or
storm. But again, most locations wl remain dry.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Grant-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Woodruff.

&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
930 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
930 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a large part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The remnants of what was once Tropical Storm Cindy are currently
located in southwest Arkansas, roughly halfway between El Dorado and
Texarkana. Bands of showers, some very heavy, continue to rotate
around the center of circulation. The heaviest precipitation is
located over the east and southeast portions of the state.

Locally heavy rain will remain possible through the night with once
again, the best chances over the east and southeast. A flash flood
watch remains in effect for roughly the SE half of the state through
the night. As with any decaying tropical system, isolated and brief
tornadoes can spin up at any time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Areas of rain will continue Friday morning. Rain could be heavy
south and east of Little Rock.

Through Friday, two to five inches of rain will be possible across
the southern and eastern counties, with a Flash Flood Watch posted.
The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture, and this could lead to
locally more than five inches of precipitation, especially along the
track of the tropical system.

The system will exit the region toward the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon. This will happen as a cold front pushes into Arkansas
from the Plains.

The front will bring continued chances of hit and miss thunderstorms
through the first part of the weekend. Drier air will build behind
the front, with little to no rain from Sunday into the middle of
next week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
737 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

ARZ033-230100-
White AR-
737 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Higginson, or near Searcy, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Searcy...                         Bald Knob...
Judsonia...                       Kensett...
Higginson...                      Russell...
West Point...                     Bradford...
Garner...                         Letona...
Griffithville...                  Albion...
Vinity Corner...                  Clay...
Providence...                     Dewey...
Walker...                         Armstrong Springs...
Velvet Ridge...                   Plainview in White County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 9159 3506 9180 3542 9184 3543 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 183DEG 15KT 3520 9170

62

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