Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
overnight. Coverage will increase again during the daytime and
especially the afternoon hours on Monday. Late tonight some patchy
dense fog could be seen. Winds will be generally light to calm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will remain possible this
evening...with coverage gradually decreasing later tonight. Will
still keep some mention of SHRA overnight...but should be more
isolated in nature. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will increase again
during the daylight hrs on Mon. Just like in previous
nights...some patchy fog may also be seen overnight into early Mon
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday, as remnant
surface boundaries meander around the region, and upper low over
the Red River Valley gradually shifts eastward. Similar to the
last few days, over all convective coverage will decrease late
tonight, then increase again on Monday as daytime heating kicks
in.

Precipitation should clear out Monday night and Tuesday, as the
upper low weakens, becomes an open wave and pushes into the
central Gulf Coast region. Behind it, meridional upper flow will
usher cooler and drier air into the region.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Tuesday night through Wednesday night a large scale trough will
setup over the eastern half of the continental United States, with
an upper ridge over the west. As we head into into the weekend, the
western ridge will shift east into the plains. Shortwave energy
moving south through the upper midwest will help to fend off the
ridge progression somewhat on Friday, but by late Saturday afternoon
the ridge should be situated right over Arkansas and will remain
there into Sunday.

So what does this mean for Arkansans from a weather perspective?
Well, persistent north to northwesterly flow overhead during the
midweek time frame will keep temperatures below normal with dry
conditions prevailing. The midwest shortwave energy will likely
increase cloud cover, especially in the north, on Friday but model
agreement on continuing dry conditions is pretty high so I went
ahead and removed the slight rain chances up north. The ridge
building in for the weekend looks like it will finally push
temperatures back up to, or possibly above, normal values though.
The pattern is consistent with more summer-like temperatures and
weather, with south or southwesterly winds extending from the
surface up through the mid levels. With such a pattern in place I
would expect the arrival of 90s for afternoon highs in many places,
including Little Rock. But for the time being, have not gone that
high yet since it's still 6-7 days out.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1010 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1010 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible
overnight. However, no organized severe weather is expected. Patchy
dense fog will also form during the late night and early morning
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

An upper level disturbance will linger over Arkansas on Monday, with
shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. An isolated strong
or severe storm is possible, but the overall threat will remain low.
Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with stronger storms.

Drier conditions will return starting on Tuesday and continuing
through the rest of the week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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