Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
119 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...27/06Z TAF CYCLE

A few strong/severe storms will mainly affect locations along the
AR/MO border thru the early mrng hrs, including the KHRO and KBPK.
Otherwise, VFR CIGS initially wl lower to MVFR lvls toward
daybreak and persist thru much of the mrng hrs before improving.
The next round of convection is fcst to form NW of AR aft 28/00Z
and eventually impact the NRN half of AR just beyond this fcst pd.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas through the period. The
Lake Wind Advisory will expire at 7 pm...when lighter winds move
into the area. The main forecast focus will be showers and
thunderstorms over the area Saturday into Sunday. A stalled front
just north and west of Arkansas will remain across Missouri,
Oklahoma, and Texas overnight. There will be a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms north and central tonight. As the front
moves closer to the state instability and moisture will increase
on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday evening
and overnight. There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms
Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats...and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. The cold front
will not move through Arkansas until Sunday...so shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
No major changes were made to the going long term forecast...except
for some minor tweaks to temps and timing of precipitation on
Sunday. Long term begins with cold front across extreme southeast
Arkansas and precipitation ongoing along the front. Models are
showing an upper level disturbance ride along the front and bring an
additional wave of precipitation late Sunday night. However models
do still vary on exact timing and location of this piece of energy
and it will continue to be monitored in future forecasts.

Lingering precipitation will come to an end on Monday across
southeast Arkansas with high pressure and near zonal flow aloft
moves in over the region. Dry weather and at/slightly above normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday until the next chance
for precipitation returns to the forecast and continues through the
end of the long term.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
259 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
259 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms in the north
Saturday, likely Saturday night. There is an Enhanced Risk
surrounding the Moderate Risk that extends into central and
southwest Arkansas.Severe thunderstorms will become possible
Saturday afternoon and early evening across the
northern/northwestern half of Arkansas. While uncertainty exists on
whether storms can form and become mature...any storm that does form
will have the potential to produce very large hail and damaging
winds. These storms may also be capable of producing a tornado or
two.

As time goes on late Saturday evening into the early morning hours
on Sunday...the potential for seeing more organized thunderstorms
will increase as a cold front drops south towards the state. These
thunderstorms could also become severe...with damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms as this activity looks to form
into a larger...more organized line or complex. Large hail and a few
brief tornadoes will also be possible as this line or complex moves
south across northern Arkansas. Some locally heavy rain may also be
seen...resulting in an isolated flash flood threat.

By Sunday morning...the threat for seeing severe weather will have
decreased...but the cold front will still be dropping south across
the state. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across the southern/southeastern half of the
state as the cold front pushes through this region of Arkansas.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may again be possible
during this period.

Calmer and drier conditions will be seen for Monday into Tuesday.
The threat for hazardous weather will then become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. However, please
monitor forecast trends over the holiday weekend.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     HAIL             1 WNW ROBERSON HOLLOW   36.48N 93.29W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
150 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.45N 93.19W
05/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       BOONE              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
155 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     HAIL             7 E OMAHA               36.45N 93.06W
05/27/2017  E2.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
202 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.45N 93.19W
05/27/2017  E2.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             3 E LEAD HILL           36.42N  92.86W
05/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       MARION             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FALLING FOR 4 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700203

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW FAWN PARK          36.38N  92.37W
05/27/2017                   BAXTER             AR   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A ROOF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700204

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