Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move through the area Saturday
evening and become stationary across the Carolinas early next
week. Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds
through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Strengthening srly flow has
allowed warm front to advance north and allow for substantial
breaks in the cloud cover. T-storms have developed over eastern
WV and expect convective cvrg to increase through the remainder
of the day and into the evening as air mass continues to
destabilize. Main forcing appears to be advancing warm front.
Can't completely rule out a severe t-storm given 0-6km shear
but CAPE values generally less than 1000 J/kg should keep that
threat to a minimum. Flash flooding threat also appears low. Showers
will likely linger well into the night across eastern areas but
diminish across western areas. Areas of low clouds and/or fog
can be expected overnight with stratus more common over
northeast MD and fog more likely west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Morning low clouds
and fog will likely hinder sufficient destabilization for severe
t-storms before cdfnt crosses the area late in the day or
evening, but expect nmrs coverage of showers and t-storms
especially east of I-95 and over southern MD. Greatest risk for
flash flooding and severe wx appears over srn MD, the
Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva. Showers should move east and
south of the area by Sat evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Uncertainty remains in place early next week with models diverging
on the track of a wave of low pressure progged to move east along
the stalled front to our south. The 0Z ECM continued to track it
further north, moving across our region, while others such as the
latest GFS and 0Z Canadian continue to allow high pressure to the
north to build south and generally dominate. However, even with the
drier solutions, an easterly flow may result in some clouds and
perhaps some upslope showers in the mountains. Overall, however,
temperatures will be near to perhaps a bit below normal early in the
week.

By Wednesday, high pressure dominates on most guidance including the
ECM, with temperatures starting to warm a bit. By late Thursday and
particularly Friday however, the high shifts off the coast and the
next front is approaching, with a gradually increasing risk of
showers and t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Sct t-storms rest of
today into the evening. Low clouds and/or fog expected tonight
with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys. Another round of showers/t-storms
expected again Sat with fropa.

Depending on the strength of easterly flow and the path of a low
pressure system moving eastward along the front stalled to the
south, a period of sub VFR conditions may occur early next week due
either to low clouds or rain. Uncertainty remains high, however.

&&

.MARINE...

Srly winds will continue to strengthen today into this evening
with SCA conditions expected. Winds should diminish late
tonight. T-storms Sat may require SMWs.

Uncertainty exists regarding early next week on the strength of an
easterly flow as a front remains south of the region and a wave of
low pressure pushes east along it. However, at this time SCA
conditions are not expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/LFR
MARINE...RCM/LFR

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