Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain offshore through Friday. A cold front
will move across the area from the west Friday night into
Saturday morning. High pressure will return Sunday. A stationary
front looks to set up near the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MLCAPE 1000 to 2000 j/kg with activity popped from the ridges.
Bulk shear below 20 knots again today, so slow moving activity
will once again have isolated severe and flash flood potential
into the early evening.

Decent amount of cloud cover tonight should limit fog
development to preferred valleys only. Dewpoints upper 60s west
to low 70s east make for min temps around there.

Cold front approaches Friday, but associated clouds generally
hold off until the evening in prefrontal activity. That should
set up more terrain circulations for convective initiation in
the afternoon with more more activity than today given an
increase in bulk shear to around 20 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front crosses the area from the west Friday night into
Saturday morning. Bumped up PoPs associated with this feature
to at least likely. Activity should wane on normal nocturnal
trends, but would not be surprised if slight risk shifted
farther east from the Allegheny Highlands with aforementioned
insolation ahead of the front.

High pressure then builds through Saturday night with welcome
tranquil, drier, and cooler conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of high pressure will bring dry and breezy conditions to
most of the region Sunday. There could be a late afternoon or
evening shower or thunderstorm in parts of the Potomac Highlands.
Temperatures will be below normal.

As the high pressure moves off the coast Sunday night, a return flow
will fuel a couple of showers and thunderstorms across the region
Monday. A few disturbances and associated frontal boundary will ride
eastward.

A front is expected to stall across the region Tuesday through
Thursday. Thus, unsettled conditions will linger with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms each period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms into this evening will bring locally
IFR conds during the heaviest activity.

Vfr conditions expected outside of morning fog in typical
valleys Sunday and Sunday night under high pressure.

Mvfr to ifr conditions Monday and Monday night with showers and
thunderstorms increasing over the region as a stationary front
sets up. Winds light and variable Sunday and Sunday night. Winds
becoming south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots Monday and Monday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure offshore through Friday. SEly channeling
increases through the rest of the afternoon with 20 knot gusts
for southern MD Bay waters where an SCA is in effect into
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms near over over the Bay through
this evening.

A cold front crosses the Bay from the west late Friday night
into Saturday morning.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds light
and variable Sunday and Sunday night. Winds becoming south around 10
knots Monday and Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated water levels will persist for the next couple of days
with minor coastal flooding likely at sensitive sites like Annapolis
and Straits Point near the preferred high tide each day through
the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ

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