Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually move offshore through the end of
the week. A cold front will cross the area Friday night or early
Saturday. High pressure will return Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient daytime heating, numerous thunderstorms have
been able to develop across southeast Pennsylvania. Although
shear minimal, this airmass marked by MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg.
Northeast Maryland on the edge of this bubble of instability.
Also have a cluster of thunderstorms in central Virginia;
favorable low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km) driving that activity.
Since mid-level rates not that impressive in the latter sector,
do not expect significant development at this time.

Latest HRRR/RAP suggest that outflows may allow for storms to
propagate southwest toward the Potomac River this afternoon,
which will feed off of MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates.
Additional storms should be scattered in coverage and pulse in
nature. Loss of daytime heating should mark the end of these,
but weak vort fragments may prolong isolated shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic pattern will change little through Thursday, which
means that there should be another round of diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Heights should be subtly
higher, so coverage should be less, and focused more on the
Potomac Highlands.

A deepening trough axis across the Great Lakes Friday will drive
a cold front toward the area. The associated lowering heights
and surface convergence will provide a focusing mechanism. While
shear will be better, the extent of instability not completely
clear at this time. Nonetheless, set-up favorable for scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, especially in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is expected to cross the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday
morning before moving to the east Saturday afternoon. A couple of
showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front.

An area of high pressure will bring dry and breezy conditions to the
region on Sunday. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected
this weekend.

High pressure will move off the coast Sunday night and return flow
begins Monday. Unsettled weather conditions will develop with an
approaching storm system Tuesday then a stalled front on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thus far, thunderstorms have avoided the terminals. There still
will be an opportunity through sunset...the strongest of which
may contain gusty winds or hail. Given trends thus far, its too
questionable for any specific TAF mention.

The air mass will be humid enough for a patchy fog threat
overnight...primarily in the valleys of Virginia and West
Virginia. That said, this afternoon's thunderstorm activity will
add to moist soils in northeast Maryland, which could provide
fog potential there as well.

There will be another round of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening, which will be followed by more
patchy for Thursday night into Friday morning.

A cold front will approach on Friday, but stay west of the
terminals during the daylight hours. Nonetheless, anticipate yet
another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening.

MVFR to IFR conditions expected Saturday with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions should return
Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be light from the south this afternoon, but may be
locally strong in vicinity of thunderstorms. A few Special
Marine Warnings will be possible. That activity will be
dissipating over the course of the evening.

The pattern will repeat itself on Thursday with respect to
additional thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Coverage
should be better inland, but a few may threaten the waters as
well.

Southerly channeling will be a potential issue late Thursday
into Thursday evening. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for 20
kt gusts in the mid Bay and mouth of the Potomac late afternoon
through the evening. South flow, with a decent gradient, will
extend into Friday. Will keep the mention in the synopsis at
this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides elevated, but still less than a foot above normal.
However, since we're approaching a full moon, it won't take
much. Based on current projections, Annapolis will reach minor
criteria tonight. That Advisory has already been issued. There
may be additional issues through the end of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE WHITE MARSH       39.39N  76.43W
08/02/2017                   BALTIMORE          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            DOWNED TREE NEAR JOPPA RD AND PHILADELPHIA RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1702627

IMR

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