Wind Advisory 22, NWS Lubbock, TX

014 
WWUS74 KLUB 282052
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
252 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELLED...

.Wind speeds have started to decrease this afternoon as a cold
front has pushed south of the area..

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-282200-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-171128T2300Z/
Parmer-Castro-Bailey-Lamb-Cochran-
Including the cities of Friona, Bovina, Farwell, Dimmitt, Hart, 
Muleshoe, Littlefield, Amherst, Olton, Morton, and Whiteface
252 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Lubbock has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Occasional wind gusts to 40 mph may still be possible through
sunset across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and far
northwestern South Plains.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Most weather in the forecast will be occurring over the next 12
hours or so.

The primary threat will be from wind today. A compact upper low will
move from the four-corners to the Texas Panhandle by this afternoon.
Wind maxes aloft will be squarely across the South Plains with the
passage of the strongest height gradient aloft. This will include
70kt winds at 500mb. This will bring strong winds to the region
behind a cold front although slightly later than previously
forecast. This front was currently plowing through southeastern
Colorado through southern Kansas. Pressure rises behind this front
are progged to be between 8 and 9 mb per three hours centered from
eastern New Mexico through the South Plains. This will likely bring
sustained winds of at least 30 mph near the Texas/New Mexico state
line. Since the front is slightly delayed from earlier forecasts,
this will allow stronger heating in the southern South Plains and
therefore elevated fire weather conditions. Significant low level
drying will occur ahead of the front centered over the Permian Basin
but extending into the southwestern South Plains.

The weather will be fairly uneventful for the rest of the week.
Another cold front will move through early on Thursday. This front
will pack some colder air but less in the way of winds. The GFS
brings a weak short wave over the area during the day on Friday with
precipitation but this solution is not supported in any other model
guidance. The system for next week is hardly worth discussing here
given the extreme model run to run inconsistencies. An upper level
trough is forecast to drop into the western CONUS early next week
but model solutions are high divergent from there and lend very
little in the way of forecast confidence.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong cold front will move through the region this afternoon
shifting breezy westerly winds to the north. Wind speeds in the
post frontal air will be between 25 and 30 mph at the 20 foot
level. Furthermore, warm temperatures and very dry air will exist
ahead of the front across the southwestern South Plains. Elevated
fire weather conditions are therefore expected and a rangeland
fire danger statement is in effect for this area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
for TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

01/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
536 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017

TXZ021>044-282345-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
536 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are expected
to develop across the South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle late Tuesday morning and persist through Tuesday
afternoon.