Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Lubbock, TX

768 
WWUS54 KLUB 032300
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
600 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

TXC075-101-032315-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170503T2315Z/
Childress TX-Cottle TX-
600 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CHILDRESS AND NORTHEASTERN COTTLE COUNTIES...

At 559 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Childress, 
moving south at 45 mph.  A wind gust to 63 mph was reported at the 
Childress airport at 555 PM.  

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Childress, Tell, Swearingen and Kirkland. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10001 3424 10001 3424 10004 3423 10005
      3417 10005 3408 10037 3446 10041 3454 10018
      3433 10000 3423 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 341DEG 40KT 3437 10024 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

086 
WWUS54 KLUB 032309
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

TXC075-101-032315-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170503T2315Z/
Childress TX-Cottle TX-
609 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CHILDRESS AND NORTHEASTERN COTTLE COUNTIES...

At 606 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of 
Childress, moving south at 45 mph. A wind gust to 63 mph was 
reported at the Childress Municipal Airport at 555 PM.  Dime size 
hail was reported just east of the most intense part of the 
storm near the intersection of highways 287 and 83.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Swearingen and Kirkland. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10001 3424 10001 3424 10004 3423 10005
      3417 10005 3408 10037 3436 10040 3443 10011
      3433 10000 3423 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 341DEG 40KT 3429 10021 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
342 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty wind speeds continue across the area this afternoon although
speeds have come down from what we have seen this morning. Biggest
question for the remainder of this afternoon into tonight is
whether there will be any showers moving into the northern half of
the forecast area. The last several runs of the HRRR, some of the
RAP runs, and 12Z run of the TTUWRF all have isolated to scattered
precipitation developing across the northern half of the forecast
area while the rest of the operational models keep us dry. Based
on both visible and water vapor satellite loops, it looks like
enough dry air will be in place across the region to keep any
precipitation from developing. Showers and a few thunderstorms
across the TX/OK Panhandles drifting south towards the area may
make it into the northern zones but it will be difficult to get
any precipitation to the ground in the dry air.

After the storms dissipate, we should have a quiet night lead into
a quiet weekend weather-wise as a ridge builds across the region.
Surface flow will return to the south to southeast and combined
with the building heights under the ridge will bump high
temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the Caprock and
upper 80s to some lower 90s for the Rolling Plains. Through this
same time period, models continue to deepen a trough into a strong
closed low across the West Coast and start to swing this system
east by Monday. This should mark the start of a more active period
for storms for the first part of next week.

There are still considerable differences in timing and strength of
this next storm system but it does look like low-level Gulf
Moisture will stream back into the region Sunday night into Monday
morning as a strong low-level jet develops. The dryline will
become established across eastern New Mexico and both the GFS and
ECMWF hint at a series of weak shortwave to swing out ahead of the
main low. It remains way too early to have a good handle on when
and where storms may develop but this pattern typically results in
storms developing across eastern New Mexico in the late afternoon,
and then a few of those drifting east into the western part of the
forecast area. Coverage is expected to be best in the afternoon
and evening hours so cut back PoPs in the morning for Monday and
Tuesday. Shear profiles plus the presence of an elevated mixed
layer may allow for a few severe storms, especially if the
directional shear profiles improve from what is currently in the
forecast.  Wednesday remains the day of biggest uncertainties as
the models kick the dryline east of the area at some point during
the day but differ on the timing of this as well as the movement
of the closed low. The GFS is now the faster of the two extended
range models and much stronger than the ECMWF with the closed low.
Precipitation chances may need to be extended into Thursday and
possibly Friday IF enough moisture remains behind the departing
system and as a cold front moves across the area.

After the warm temperatures this weekend, the diurnal spread in
temperatures will decrease as increasing moisture helps to
moderate highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps
will also bump back up into the 50s and lower 60s across the
forecast area as the dryline sloshes west in the overnight hours.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1120 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

TXZ021>044-041630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1120 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday,
mainly across the South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle.