Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.AVIATION...
Tricky night ahead, as a Pacific front will be pushing through all
3 TAF sites with tstrms expected. Timing has become a little more
narrowed as short term models are coming into better agreement.
Tstrms may be able to produce some severe wind gusts. Expect
northerly winds and calmer conditions by early morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A sharp upper level trough currently over the Rockies will emerge
onto the Plains this evening but not before creating some severe
weather chances across West Texas.

Most of the upper level divergence from this trough will be
concentrated to the north of the region from the Texas Panhandle
into southwestern Kansas. A surface trough/dryline west of the
area in eastern New Mexico will be overtaken by a quick moving
cold front this evening which will add to the available lift from
the upper trough. Low level convergence will rapidly increase as
the cold front enters West Texas during the evening. In the
meantime, low level theta-e will continue to increase out ahead of
the cold front/dryline. Mixed layer instability values will reach
on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg within the next few hours. Weak
capping is expected to be in place where instability is strongest.
Currently, CIN is still between -50 and -100 across the entire
area. The instability axis will be oriented from southwest to
northeast with maximum values from the south-central Texas
Panhandle into the eastern Panhandle. Furthermore, deep layer
shear will continue to increase with the approach of the upper
level trough. This will all support a severe weather threat mostly
after 00Z and clearing the FA around 06-07Z. The primary threat
from this activity will be large hail and strong damaging winds.

Another trough will move into the inter-mountain west on Sunday.
This will push the surface ridge out of the region and replace it
with surface lee troughing along with lee cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado. As a result, winds and temperatures will be pumped up on
Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front for Monday morning.
Continued to side closer to the ECMWF solution of a faster cold
front with a suspiciously slow GFS. Strong pressure rises behind
the front will bring strong winds in its wake. Also, 850mb
temperatures around 1-3C in the southwestern Texas Panhandle may
bring a light freeze to these areas on Tuesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/74

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
702 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

TXZ021>044-070900-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
702 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening
generally north and west of a Morton to Lubbock to Childress
line. A cold front will move through the South Plains area this
evening. As this front moves into rich low level moisture
scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along
it and move mainly in an east and southeast direction with the
front. The amount of instability associated with the moist air
mass in concert with favorable winds aloft will create an
environment for some of the storms to become severe with hail to
the size of golfballs and wind gusts to 70 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening.