Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon radar analysis showed a small MCS developing over the
northern TX Panhandle moving to the SSE. Short term models keep this
complex together, bringing it into the FA between 2000 and 2100Z.
While the heaviest activity is expected to remain west of the I-27
corridor, a few places to the east may receive some of the
stratiform precip with this almost PS type MCS. By 4Z, the brunt of
the activity should be moving into the Permian Basin, though some
light shower activity may fill in overnight. Therefore, left slight
mention PoPs in through the morning.

Tomorrow, much like today, brings easterly winds with moisture
lingering, but a good lifting mechanism will still be absent from
the picture. We'll once again be left with convection firing from
the high terrain of NM/CO from minor short wave activity and
propagating our way off of NW flow for the most part. However, the
position of the high, and this will be true of Wednesday and
Thursday especially, will actually steer the NW flow to favor more
of the TX Panhandle, leaving much of our area to miss out on
beneficial rain. As this happens, the lack of rain, as well as fewer
clouds, will lead to warming temperatures through the rest of the
week.

Models split at the end of the week on the fate of our NW flow. The
GFS would be a more favorable solution with it keeping NW flow
throughout the weekend as a front is progged to push through on
Sunday. This would greatly enhance our rain chances and help keep
temperatures on the cooler side. The ECMWF goes more zonal on
Friday, staying so through the weekend, which would lead to a drier
and warmer solution. Cotton crops around here would mostly likely
favor the GFS at this point.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

74/74

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
302 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

TXZ021>044-082015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
302 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A complex of thunderstorms will move from north to south across
the extreme southwest Panhandle and the western South Plains late
this afternoon and evening. These storms will have a small
potential to produce wind gusts to 65 mph and heavy rainfall that
may lead to some localized flooding. These threats are greatest to
the west of a Tulia to Tahoka line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely to be needed this afternoon and
evening.

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