Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place all three TAF sites. Developing line of
storms will move through the TAF sites later this evening and
confidence is fairly high on the timing. May need to tweak start
and end times some but expect strong gusty wind with the storm
arrival. After the storms depart, skies will return to VFR with a
light and variable wind. There may be a few isolated storms
overnight but confidence is too low to include. VFR conditions
will then continue through the day Wednesday.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Our expected thunderstorm complex tonight is already starting to
take shape across northeast NM at 330 pm. Scattered t-storms
developing in that area are expected to gradually organize as they
approach our northwest counties by 7 pm or so. The developing
south-southeasterly low-level jet this evening will help these
storms grow upscale this evening into a MCS which should march
south-southeastward through much of the forecast area, finally
exiting to the south and east early Wednesday morning. Winds aloft
are pretty modest...although not bad for July...but deep-layer
shear will improve some as the LLJ kicks in. MUCAPEs are progged
to be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and will support a severe wind
gust threat along with perhaps an isolated large hail threat early
on. A localized flooding threat may also materialize given the
saturated soil across parts of the area and PWATS running around 1
to 1.5 inches across the area.

After tonight's activity it looks like we will have one more day
of storm chances before an upper-level ridge building over the
4-corners area begins to exert more influence for a while. In
fact, our storm chances on Wednesday do not look very promising as
slightly cooler temperatures should keep the area a little more
stable locally, while upper-flow turning more north-northeasterly
will keep the activity in NM pinned to the higher terrain. We may
look for any boundary left over from the overnight complex to help
overcome any inhibition late Wed.

Precip. chances should be low Thursday and Friday as we undergo a
warming and drying trend. The temperature rebound may be tempered
somewhat by the moist soil, especially if we get widespread
rainfall tonight. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest that a weakness
could develop in the east side of the ridge by Saturday which
could temporarily shift the steering winds to the N-NW and give a
little better chance for storms to make it into the area late
Saturday and possibly into Sunday. The ridge broadens over much
of the western and central U.S. early next week which should keep
precipitation chances low and keep temps near or slightly above
average.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

14/99/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

TXZ021>044-051600-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early
evening across the South Plains, mainly to the south and west of
highway 84. This evening and overnight, a complex of
thunderstorms is expected to move southeast across much of the
forecast area. A few of these storms have the potential to be
severe with wind gusts to 65 mph and hail to one inch in diameter.
In addition, some locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially
in the Rolling Plains later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday and Wednesday night,
though coverage and intensity will be less than recent days. By
Thursday, drier weather is expected across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and
tonight.

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