Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast continues to remain not so exciting as an upper high
dominates to our west. While this will help keep us warm, it will
also help give us continued rain chances. Recent heavy rains along
with mostly south to southeasterly surface winds will help keep
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s with the occasional upper 40. Terrain
induced convection is expected to develop most days along the
mountains of NM and push southeastward during the afternoon and
evenings following weak northwesterly upper flow. The one exception
to this looks Tuesday into early Wednesday when a shortwave moves
around the upper high and brings a front into the region.
Disorganized convection has the potential to develop along the
front, but how much rain we will see will depend on the timing of
the fropa with the passage of the shortwave. The current timing for
models could hamper many Independence Day celebrations, particularly
fireworks, as the GFS has the front pushing all the way through the
FA by 00Z. The 00Z ECMWF showed a similar solution, but the current
12Z run keeps the front mostly to the north and does not push a
front through until Wednesday evening. It does, however, fire
convection along the axis of the passing shortwave late in the
afternoon. A marginal risk for severe storms does exists tomorrow
afternoon and evening with the biggest threat being hail around 1
inch and winds over 60 mph. One other hazard consideration, given
many people will be outdoors, is lightning. Those attended outdoor
events should have shelter available nearby for the possibility of
thunderstorms.

Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler behind the front with highs
in the low to mid 90s. Beyond Wednesday the pattern should be
similar to what we have been experiencing for the past several days
with highs in the 90s, mostly southerly winds, and chances of precip
most afternoons and evenings. A lull precip is expected later this
week around Friday as the upper high extends eastward.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

TXZ021>044-041630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Thunderstorms may once again develop this evening across the TX
Panhandle and move southeast into parts of the South and Rolling
Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. A few
storms could become marginally severe with wind gusts to 65 mph
and quarter sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Late evening and overnight thunderstorms are possible through
mid-week, with a few storms potentially becoming severe. By
Thursday, drier weather is expected to form across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and
tonight.