Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
A storm complex is developing across ERN NM and the WRN OK
Panhandle. This complex is expected to push across all three TAF
sites later tonight. TAF amendments will be required if storms
look to directly impact a terminal, otherwise, will stay with VCTS
for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Better convection chances will take place tonight with a number of
better factors in place across the region.

We will see more of our typical northwest flow summer time
thunderstorms this evening through early Monday morning. The upper
ridge will continue to buckle with the ridge axis shifting east. A
more pronounced short wave aloft rotating around the upper ridge
will dive down east-southeast tonight promoting increased
overnight convection. Convection was already developing in central
New Mexico this afternoon in response to this short wave.
Clearing low stratus in eastern New Mexico will give way to
healthy surface based instability this afternoon. During the
evening and overnight hours locally, elevated instability will
continue amidst continued moist southeasterly flow. Given a very
unstable atmosphere, storms entering the region from the west will
be capable of becoming severe with large hail and wind the
primary threats.

Monday and Tuesday continue to remain more questionable in terms
of thunderstorm chances. An upper level low in southwestern Canada
will continue to flatten the ridge. We will lose much of our upper
level support with a decrease in jet level winds. After midweek,
we will see mostly zonal flow aloft but rising heights/thickness
values will boost temperatures back above seasonal averages. The
upper low over southwest Canada will move into the Northern Plains
and upper Midwest by late week sending a cold front down close to
the region. However, models have been backing off with this front
for Friday night/Saturday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/74

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
258 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

TXZ021>044-262000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
258 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New
Mexico this evening and move into West Texas. A very unstable
atmosphere may allow storms to become severe with wind gusts to 65
mph and hail up to golf ball size. Additionally, this activity may
bring locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.