Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Lubbock, TX

193 
WWUS84 KLUB 312041
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
341 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

TXZ021-027-028-033-034-039-040-010100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170401T0100Z/
Parmer-Bailey-Lamb-Cochran-Hockley-Yoakum-Terry-
341 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* Humidity...Between 4 and 10 percent.

* 20 foot wind...South to southwest at 20 to 25 mph with higher 
  gusts.

* Fuels...Dry.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop can spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning is discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or already occurring. These conditions can create
rapid wildfire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
357 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...
A weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary was found stretching from
near Clovis to Lubbock to Hamlin as of 730Z. To the southwest of the
boundary light and dry southerly winds were in place while on the
other side of front relatively moist upslope flow prevailed. The
moist easterly winds could eventually yield some low clouds and fog
along and adjacent to the edge of the Caprock from parts of Floyd
County up to Silverton and Tulia. The fog potential is supported by
the NAM, RUC and HRRR so have inserted a mention in the 11-16Z
window. Aside from this, attention will turn to an upper low
churning through the Great Basin. The low is expected to slow as it
translates southeastward to near the AZ/NM border by 12Z Saturday.
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft in advance of this system should
cause the boundary to edge northward through the day as breezy, warm
and very dry air spread out of southeast NM into the western and
central South Plains. Temperatures will soar into the 80s south of
the boundary while highs likely stay in the 70s where the easterly
flow persist through the day across the northeastern zones.

Mid-high clouds will increase late today into tonight from west to
east as lift from the approaching system begins to spread over the
southern High Plains. Weak surface-based CAPE will be present on the
moist side of the boundary by late in the day but it should remain
firmly capped. However, as the low-level jet increases tonight
strong WAA should lead to developing elevated convection north of
the front...likely closer to the 850 mb front. This will mean the
best storm chances will be to our north across the Panhandles,
though we can't rule out isolated elevated convection initiating
across our northern zones before quickly moving off to our north.
Given this we have inserted a minimal thunder mention across roughly
our northern row of counties tonight. Very steep mid-level lapse
rates approaching dry adiabatic could support robust updrafts and a
hail risk, though unless things change the greatest risk would again
remain primarily north and northeast of the FA. North of the front we
could also see low clouds and/or areas of fog develop early
Saturday, though there is some uncertainty regarding exactly where
the front will be positioned by early Saturday. Lows will be mostly
in the 40s on the Caprock with lower to middle 50s in the Rolling
Plains.

.LONG TERM...
An upper-level storm system will affect the forecast area this
weekend. Model guidance has recently trended slightly slower and
farther south with the track of an upper-low coming out of the
4-corners region early Saturday. The low is now expected to
elongate and sink southward during the day Saturday, taking a
position near El Paso by early Sunday morning. The upper-low may
split into north and south centers during this time, but the
southern vort max is expected to remain distinct with greater
upper-jet support. The low is then expected to track roughly
eastward across south-central Texas during the day and then on into
the ARKLATEX region by Monday morning.

By Saturday morning, it appears that the cold front will be on
the doorstep of our northern counties, and should move south
through the forecast area during the day - although there is some
model timing differences with the front that will have to be
ironed out. At this time, the timing/speed of the front and lack
of deep moisture pooling suggest that there won't be much
opportunity for convective development along the front in our
area, although coupled lift from the upper-low may be sufficient
for some spotty showers. And current indications are that the
focus for CI in the late afternoon and evening will be just to the
south and east of the forecast area along the frontal zone. But
with some lingering uncertainty with the evolution/location of the
front and upper-level features, we will maintain a chance of
t-storms going across the Rolling Plains, including at least a
small potential for some strong or severe weather if storms
develop.

If the upper-low tracks as expected across southwest Texas early
Sunday, it looks like we could see PoP chances increase as
divergence aloft develops to the northeast of the upper-low. The
focus for precip will likely be in the Rolling Plains but could
extend into much of the South Plains as well. Precip chances
should dwindle Sunday afternoon and evening as the system
progresses east.

The next upper trough will quickly follow the exiting one into the
southern Rockies by late Monday. All indications are that this one
will take a track farther north and when coupled with the lack of
opportunity of moisture return, should be mainly dry for our area.
The exception may be across the far southern Texas Panhandle where
mid-level moisture accompanying the system may interact with the
next cold front to bring a chance of some rain showers late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. The cold front and northwest flow should
keep temperatures on the cool side Wednesday into Thursday with
highs mainly in the 70s.

After that system passes, it looks like upper-level ridging will
build in to keep the weather mild and dry for the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather is expected to develop across the
western and central South Plains this afternoon. The worst
conditions will be across the southwestern South Plains were the RH
may fall to or below 5 percent, while at the same time southerly to
southwesterly 20 foot winds will peak around 20 to 25 mph. This is
also roughly the same area that didn't fare so well with our last
precipitation event Tuesday and Wednesday. Hence, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning (RFW) from 18-01Z
along and west of a Friona to Littlefield to Brownfield line.
Adjacent to the RFW elevated to briefly critical fire weather will
be possible, with the magnitude of the wind being the primary
limiting factor.
 &&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

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