Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
631 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Focus will once again be an MCS tonight.

Convective debris today from MCS last night has slowed heating
today. STCU field developed early this morning beneath an EML,
however, breaks are finally becoming evident as cap begins to
weaken somewhat and boundary layer air destabilizes.

Expect TSRA to impact nrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon
or early evening hours. Not much change in the prev thinking with
all threats possible with any discrete storms that impact the
area. Any discrete storms shud become line segments fairly quickly
becoming mainly a wind threat. This line shud then congeal and
sink swd thru the CWA thru the night. Expect only lingering SHRA,
isod TS, across srn portions of the CWA by 12z Sun.

For Sun, expect a cooler day with nwly winds at the sfc behind
the cdfnt. Expect convective debris to linger thru the morning
hours. With cyclonic curvature across nrn and nwrn portions of the
CWA, expect a fair amount of diurnal CU to develop which shud
also help keep temps down. However, how far SW this thicker cloud
cover will extend is uncertain attm.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Quiet weather is expected from Sunday night through part of
Tuesday due to a surface ridge which settles across the region in
the wake of Sunday's cold front. By Tuesday afternoon, the surface
high pressure center will have moved far enough eastward for
southwesterly winds around its western periphery to bring a warm
and moist air mass back towards MO/IL. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible within this unstable air mass.

The advection of warm and moist air will also act to sharpen a
developing warm front which then lifts northeastward on Tuesday
night and Wednesday in response to a low pressure system moving
into the north central CONUS. However, there is considerable model
disagreement after 00z Wed regarding both surface and upper air
features. Models are in general agreement that there ought to be
at least one surface front near the area at least once during the
middle and late part of next week and that the upper air pattern
becomes quasizonal with several embedded vorticity maxima, but
there is significant disagreement regarding the timing and
placement of these features.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Supercell moving swd out of IA is expected to impact KUIN shortly
after 01z. This storm shud be capable of producing damaging winds
and large hail. Otherwise, little change from prev TAFs.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-181200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening. The primary threats
are large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

Kanofsky

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

ILZ097-098-MOZ035-036-042-051-052-180545-
Calhoun IL-Pike IL-Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Audrain MO-Ralls MO-
Lincoln MO-
1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...LINCOLN COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Center to near Bowling Green
to near Clarksville to near Pittsfield. Movement was south at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Bowling Green, Pittsfield, Vandalia, Louisiana, Elsberry,
Moscow Mills, Davis, Hardin, Pleasant Hill, Hawk Point, Eolia,
Clarksville, Bellflower, Farber, Curryville, Fountain N' Lakes,
Buell, New Hartford and Tarrants.

This also includes  Cuivre River State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern and west central Illinois...and central, northeastern
and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3942 9061 3935 9062 3929 9060 3926 9061
      3920 9059 3916 9062 3913 9061 3896 9080
      3889 9111 3893 9111 3893 9119 3899 9119
      3899 9126 3894 9127 3903 9154 3950 9162
      3938 9129 3946 9097 3966 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 345DEG 25KT 3941 9152 3932 9127 3940 9095 3955
9079

Carney

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