Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The dry line currently stretches from just east of KPPQ to KVIH.
Expect to see some TSRA develop along this line over the next few
hours as it moves ewd. Still expect a narrow corridor where a few
storms may be severe. With somewhat weaker forcing, expect coverage
to be more isod to sct. However, for those that develop, expect mode
to quickly evolve to linear based on unidirectional hodograph. TSRA
shud move ewd out of the area by mid evening leaving the rest of the
period dry.

Focus then turns to temps for Tues. Generally trended twd a
compromise of guidance. Some question on amount of cloud cover,
especially over nrn portions of the CWA, remains. The CU field
currently over NEB/IA shud remain mainly north of the CWA tomorrow.
However, some of the latest guidance just filtering in wud suggest
greater cloud cover further south.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Surface ridge to build into the region Tuesday night with drier
weather through Wednesday evening. As ridge moves off to the east on
Wednesday, warm southerly winds to return once again with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

By Wednesday night, active springtime pattern will return with
chances of showers and storms every couple of days. Frontal boundary
associated with this system will eventually stall out just south of
forecast area during the day on Thursday, then lift back north as a
warm front Friday/Friday night. So best chances of rain will be late
Wednesday night/Thursday morning and another round on Friday as
front lifts back north of forecast area.

Extended models are in pretty good agreement for a brief break in
the rain Friday night. Then more intense cold front to move through
Saturday night through Sunday, with several rounds of showers and
storms. Dry weather to return Sunday night and Monday.

As for temperatures through the period, will see highs in the 70s to
low 80s, before cooling back down to the mid 60s to mid 70s next
Monday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Cold front is currently moving across the St. Louis metro area,
and isolated thunderstorms may affect KCPS early on in the TAF
period. It is possible that low clouds over northwest Missouri
will move east and southeast into the TAF sites tonight. However,
it seems more likely that it will stay north of the area and that
the terminals will stay dry and VFR through the period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the period with west to northwest winds.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through
early this evening for the Saint Louis metro area and areas to the
south and east as a cold front moves through. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main severe threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible through early this evening for the
Saint Louis metro area and areas to the south and east.

Byrd

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
552 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             2 NE RICHWOODS          38.19N 90.81W
04/10/2017  E0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             COLLINSVILLE            38.68N 90.00W
04/10/2017  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JC